Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is officially in full swing, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We’ve got a nice big slate on Saturday, and one of the best games is this NL West clash between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. It should be a great one, broadcasted wide by FS1.
We just cashed an MLB same game parlay at +1253 odds following this same format on Tuesday, let’s do it again on Saturday. What better way to celebrate this nationally televised game than by betting a same game parlay? We’ve also got thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
San Diego Padres -3.5 (+320)
Buster Posey to record 2+ hits (+210)
Parlay odds: +1498
Keeping things simple with another two-leg parlay here, just like Tuesday, one which pays out just shy of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a huge odds boost by combining a big Padres win with a big game from Posey, when I don’t think it conflicts at all. Let me explain:
San Diego Padres -3.5 (+320)
The Padres have a good chance to win this one big. The Giants have been a great story, don’t get me wrong, but it’ll end soon. San Francisco has clearly been overachieving their talent level, and won’t be able to keep it going much longer. There’s value in fading them when their market is at an all-time high. The Padres will start Joe Musgrove here, who has been brilliant this season with a 2.38 ERA.
He’s only had one bad start, which just came against this same Giants team. Even after giving up five earned runs his ERA is still only 2.38, which shows you how dominant he was before. San Francisco isn’t going to get to him twice in a row. Speaking of overachieving, that’s a good way to describe Giants starter Kevin Gausman. He’s never been nearly this good in his career, and is due for a rude awakening with this being the third time San Diego’s lineup has seen him in the past month.
Buster Posey to record 2+ hits (+210)
This doesn’t conflict much, since I’m expecting a big game from the Padres’ offense. We can afford some success from San Francisco’s lineup, and all we need is a high scoring game to cash this. Getting +210 here has some standalone value since Posey is arguably the league’s hottest hitter right now.
He’s gotten at least two hits in five of his last seven games. The Giants are just 1-3 the last four times he’s gotten multiple hits, so there clearly isn’t the strong correlation between Posey doing well and the Giants winning that FanDuel seems to think there is. Posey is hitting .397 this season, and we should keep riding him until he cools down.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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