Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is officially in full swing, and it’s that special time of year when every team’s dreams are still alive. We’ve got a nice slate on Wednesday, and one of the best games is this matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves. A showdown between two of the National League’s most popular teams.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised (FS1) clash than by betting a same game parlay? We’ve also got thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Chicago Cubs -2.5 (+310)
Huascar Ynoa over 5.5 strikeouts (+108)
Kyle Hendricks over 4.5 strikeouts (-102)
Parlay odds: +1686
We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a huge odds boost by combining a big Cubs win with a big game from Ynoa, when it doesn’t conflict at all. Let me explain:
Chicago Cubs -2.5 (+310)
Public perception of the Cubs is at a low, so that’s created some value on them. Chicago has been a disappointment for sure, but they’ve been a lot better recently. Particularly on offense. They also still clearly have a lot of upside, and their last win over the Braves came by a score of 13-4. In fact, that’s why I like this alternate run line. Three of the Cubs’ last five wins have come by at least nine runs.
When they win, they tend to win big. The Braves have looked pretty good to start this series, but in their previous two games they were held to just one hit across 14-innings against the Diamondbacks. Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna are both hitting .213 or worse, as are some of their non-stars. Getting +310 is too good to pass up.
Huascar Ynoa over 5.5 strikeouts (+108)
We get a big odds boost by combining this with the Cubs -2.5, when I don’t really think they conflict. The young Dominican has some nasty stuff, and he has 25 strikeouts in 22 innings this year. He’s struck out at least five in all four of his starts, and that seems to be his floor. Why I like combining these two is that he doesn’t need to pitch that well to get there. Even in his worst start of the season when he gave up six earned runs and three home runs in only four innings, he still struck out five. Chicago also has the fifth-most strikeouts in the league this season. The Braves’ bullpen has been middling, so even if Ynoa has a decent start, we can cover the -2.5 off the relievers.
Kyle Hendricks over 4.5 strikeouts (-102)
Conversely this play correlates strongly with a Cubs win. Hendricks has made four starts in 2021, pitching very well in two and getting hit hard in two. In his two good games, he struck out six both times. In his two bad games, he struck out only six total. He has 18 strikeouts in 19 innings, so we probably only need five innings from him to cash this prop. For us to cover the -2.5, we were going to need that anyway, so I don’t see the harm in throwing this in. The Cubs are only winning by three or more if Hendricks does a decent job slowing down these Atlanta bats.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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