Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
I’m on a 30-12 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.
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San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-105)
For my first pick on Friday’s slate, I’m going with the NRFI in this matchup between the Padres and Astros. These teams are heading into completely different directions, but we’re at least getting one of the best pitchers in the NL on the mound for San Diego. Blake Snell is in the thick of the Cy Young race, with most sportsbooks having him as the odds-on favorite to win the award. Snell has tossed 13 consecutive scoreless innings over his last 2 starts, to say nothing of the 12 ER allowed in the 8 previous starts.
On the other side, Hunter Brown gets a ton of ground balls and is within the top-20 percentile in strikeout percentage among all qualified pitchers. Given Snell’s form and Brown’s ability to generate swinging strikes, let’s back a scoreless opening frame in this one.
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Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays: NRFI (-125)
For my second pick on Friday’s card, I’ll be backing another NRFI, this time in Tampa Bay, where the Rays will host the Mariners. Both of these teams are typically led by their pitching and I expect that outlook to hold in this contest. George Kirby gets the ball for the Mariners and the right-hander has been excellent out this season with a 3.39 ERA and 3.79 xERA. Kirby has the 5th-shortest odds for AL Cy Young despite being only 25 years old, a sign that he should be a terrific pitcher for years to come.
He’ll be opposed by Taj Bradley, who has an xERA more than a full point lower than his actual ERA, showing that he’s due for some major positive regression. Let’s take the NRFI in what should be a well-pitched game at the Trop.
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