Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market could be your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the first inning and let the chips fall where they may. We have 28 teams in action today, starting in Chicago and winding down in San Diego. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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Houston Astros vs New York Yankees: YRFI (-120)
The Yankees scored 3 of their 4 runs in the first inning of yesterday’s game, and I believe we get some early runs again tonight – but likely from the visiting Astros. Luis Severino takes the ball for New York, and many would argue he’s been the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season. Through 12 starts, Severino owns a career-worst 7.49 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and .329 opposing batting average. Over 5 starts in the month of July, Severino pitched to a 11.22 ERA and has given up at least 7 earned runs on 3 separate occasions. Severino’s last start against the Orioles lasted just 3.1 innings after he allowed 9 earned runs on 10 hits and 2 walks.
The underlying metrics for Severino are just as alarming as his actual results. Severino’s 18.0% strikeout rate is well below his career mark of 26.3% and he ranks in the bottom 10th percentile of xBA, hard-hit rate, xSLG, barrel rate, and whiff rate. Hunter Brown of the Astros has been much more effective, but he’s also coming off his worst month of the season. Brown pitched to a 5.92 ERA through 5 starts in July as compared to his season ERA of 4.12 over 20 starts. Most concerning is how hard Brown has been hit, as he’s given up 34 hits over the last 24.1 innings and his 44.8% hard-hit rate is well above the MLB average of 36.2%. I don’t have much faith in either one of these starting pitchers and I love the price we’re getting at -120.
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Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers: NRFI (-113)
The Miami Marlins have really cooled off and their series against the Rangers could only pile on. The Marlins lost 8 consecutive games after the all-star break and have compiled a 5-13 record in that time frame. They just lost 3 out of 4 against the Philadelphia Phillies and were fortunate to have not been swept. The Marlins’ offense since the all-star break has been non-existent and they’re tied for last in runs scored with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Oakland Athletics. They’re dead last with only 13 home runs over the last 18 games and I don’t foresee them scoring any runs in the first inning tonight. While Luis Arraez is the best hitter in baseball, he only has 3 home runs and isn’t a threat on the basepaths.
Miami will go up against Texas’ newly acquired left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who’s making his first start as a Ranger. Montgomery owns a 3.42 ERA through 21 starts with the Cardinals and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the beginning of June. Across his last 10 starts, Montgomery is pitching to a 2.37 ERA with 7 quality starts. The Rangers are the more dangerous of these 2 lineups and are coming fresh off a 3-game sweep of the White Sox. However, they’re going up against a young, quality pitcher in left-hander Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo boasts a 3.38 ERA and has also been excellent of late. Over his last 8 starts, 6 have been quality outings and Luzardo’s strikeout rate and chase rate are both in the 80th percentile or better. I’m willing to back Luzardo and fade the Marlins’ offense through the first inning of this game.
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