Kyle Lupas
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If you don’t like sitting around for a whole baseball game for your bet to cash, the YRFI/NRFI market may be for you. Just reserve 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight! We have all 30 teams in action today, starting in Detroit and finishing in San Francisco. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: NRFI (-136)
With losses in 10 of their last 11 games, the New York Yankees are 5 games under .500 and 10 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL wild-card race. Go back to August 3 and the Yankees were only 2.5 games out of the wild card, but things can change quickly in the MLB. One thing that has remained the same is the consistent play of the Tampa Bay Rays, who hold a 6-game lead in the AL wild-card race and are just 2 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. A huge contributor to the Rays’ success this season is tonight’s starter, Zach Eflin. After spending his first 7 seasons in Philadelphia with the Phillies, Eflin is having a career year since moving to Florida. He owns a 3.58 ERA, 3.00 xERA and 1.03 WHIP through 24 starts and tossed a 6-inning shutout against the Yankees earlier this month on just 72 pitches.
I’ve been high on Eflin this season and I like his chances to shut out the Yanks in the top of the first. Taking us to the bottom of the inning is another pitcher who’s having an excellent year and is the favorite to win his first Cy Young Award. Gerrit Cole enters tonight with a 3.03 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and tossed 7.0 innings of 2-run ball against the Rays earlier this month. Cole recorded 8 strikeouts and his lone mistake was a 2-run homer. Cole has been extremely efficient in the first inning of games, registering a 3.12 ERA while holding opposing lineups to a .177 batting average. Each of these pitchers is having an incredible season and it explains why the game total is set at just 7.5 runs. I’ll back these starters and a scoreless first inning in Tampa Bay.
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San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-128)
The San Diego Padres have the second-best starting pitching ERA in the MLB at 3.72 and send out one of their best tonight in veteran Yu Darvish. Through 23 starts, Darvish owns a 4.35 ERA, and an even better 2.90 ERA across his last 5 outings. One of Darvish’s best games this season came against the Brewers on April 16, when he tossed 7.0 innings of 1-run ball and recorded a season-high 12 strikeouts. Darvish is also due for some positive regression given his 3.68 xERA and has been one of the best first-inning pitchers this season. Darvish has not allowed a single first-inning run in 13 consecutive outings and has a first-inning ERA of 1.57.
Opposing Darvish is another top starting pitcher in the NL in Brandon Woodruff. He made just 2 starts to begin the season before missing over 4 months due to right shoulder inflammation. Since his return, Woodruff has made 3 starts of at least 5.0 innings, pitching to a 4.32 ERA. On the season, Woodruff owns a 2.89 ERA and an even better 2.77 xERA along with a 28.3% strikeout rate. It is a small sample size, but most of the damage against Woodruff thus far has come off the long ball. Over 28.0 innings, 6 of the 18 hits Woodruff has given up have gone over the fence. Given the fact that he allowed 36 home runs over 332.2 innings the last 2 seasons (or roughly 1 homer per 9 innings), I wouldn’t anticipate the high rate of home runs to continue. I’m going to back a scoreless first inning for Darvish and Woodruff.
You can also read our MLB mega parlay for Friday’s action
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