If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Friday.
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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians (GM1): NRFI (-120)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The future is bright in Cleveland with Logan Allen and Gavin Williams officially joining the rotation. The Guardians were expected to have one of the better starting rotations this season with Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac as the core four, but it hasn’t panned out that way. Bieber and McKenzie are hurt, Civale was dealt at the trade deadline and Plesac was DFA’d in June. That has opened a door for Williams to thrive, and he has made the most out of his time in the bigs. Williams has a 2.80 ERA with a 1.17 ERA after 10 starts and ranks above average in nearly every category – especially extension. While it may not seem like an important factor, Williams stands 6’6” and strides down the mound to rank in the 99th percentile. That 95 MPH fastball looks a lot more like 98 with his stride.
In the first frame this season, Williams has limited hitters to a .250 batting average with a 27.8% strikeout rate. He has surrendered just 1 first-inning run through 10 starts, which has made him a reliable NRFI pitcher. The same can be said for his counterpart, Tarik Skubal. The 26-year-old has been perfect in the first frame this season since he’s started 7 games and has yet to allow a run. He has held hitters to a .120 batting average with a stunning 40% strikeout rate in the opening inning this season. Skubal has a generous matchup against a Guardians lineup that has been atrocious against left-handed pitching since Cleveland holds just a 65 wRC+ against southpaws dating back to July 1. That mark ranks last in baseball, so besides being an already solid pitcher in the first inning, Skubal gets to face a lineup that has far worse splits against southpaw pitching. Between 2 young starters facing 2 below-average offenses, I like the chance of a scoreless opening inning in Cleveland.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers: NRFI (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Brewers had been missing their 1-2 punch in the starting rotation for some time, but the duo is finally back. Corbin Burnes is the ace of Milwaukee’s staff, and right behind him is Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff made 2 starts at the beginning of the season and was placed on the 60-day injured list shortly after with shoulder pain. Not having Woodruff for nearly the entirety of the first half of the season was a huge blow for the Brewers. However, Woodruff is back from his shoulder injury, and some might forget how dominant the right-hander is when healthy. He had a 0.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP after his first two starts of the 2023 season, and looking back to last year, he was 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts. Besides being one of the better pitchers in the National League, Woodruff also happens to be one of the greatest first-inning pitchers in baseball. In 2022 he had a 2.33 ERA and held hitters to a .194 batting average with a 34.7% strikeout rate in the opening inning. And in 4 starts this season hitters are 1-for-13 (.077) with 7 strikeouts in the first frame against him.
Although Andrew Heaney does not possess the same first-inning dominance as Woodruff, he does have several other factors to his advantage. Firstly, Heaney has been incredible in the second half of the season. After posting a 4.71 ERA before the all-star break, the southpaw has a 2.54 ERA in 6 starts since. He has held hitters to a .231 batting average and .232 xBA with just a 38% hard-hit rate in those 6 outings. Heaney will likely face Christian Yelich, William Contreras and Carlos Santana in the opening frame on Friday night, and only Yelich and Santana have faced him in their careers. Unfortunately for them, their history with Heaney isn’t a good one. The 2 hitters are a combined 1-for-12 (.083) with 3 strikeouts in their respective careers against the Texas lefty. I’m expecting a slow start to this interleague game in Arlington.
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