If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Friday.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-138)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
One of the most profitable spots in baseball this season has been the NRFI in Marlins games. Heading into Thursday, Miami had failed to score in the first inning in 80.68% of their games. That used to be the highest rate in baseball, but thanks to the Mets’ offensive struggles, the Fish rank 29th. For whatever reason, the Marlins just can’t seem to get any offense going in the first frame. That’s weird to think about since Luis Arraez is at the top of Miami’s order, too. On Friday night, Miami will face Philly ace Zack Wheeler, which makes me think that the first-inning woes will continue. In the first frame, Wheeler is allowing just a .177 batting average and a .235 on-base percentage.
By no means has Sandy Alcantara had a good season, but the majority of the damage against him has come in the middle innings. In the opening frame, the reigning NL Cy Young has limited opponents to a .231 batting average and a .250 on-base percentage. Only 4 runs have been scored against him in the first inning all year which demonstrates how the majority of the runs he’s allowed this season have come in the second time through the order. The biggest problem Alcantara has in front of him is Kyle Schwarber, who has a history of adding a run to the scoreboard with one swing in the leadoff spot. If he can avoid a long ball to Schwarber, I’m expecting a scoreless opening inning in Miami.
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New York Mets vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-128)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
As I mentioned earlier, the Mets have been horrible in the first inning this season. Prior to Thursday night, New York had been held scoreless in the first frame in 81.40% of games. But on the road, that rate increases to an absurd 87.23%. As you might have guessed, Friday night’s game will take place in San Diego. The Mets will face Yu Darvish, who has a very misleading 4.84 ERA. His xERA sits at 3.64, and he’s limited hitters to just a .233 xBA, so having an ERA near 5 is very surprising. And in the first inning, Darvish has a 1.93 ERA and has limited hitters to a weak .128 batting average and a .146 on-base percentage.
On the hill for New York is Justin Verlander, who is back and better than ever. The reigning Cy Young winner had an uncharacteristic start to the season which saw him getting hit way more than usual, but he’s been much better in recent weeks. He had a 3.33 ERA in June and is coming off a 7-inning performance against the Giants in which he allowed only 5 hits and no earned runs. The veteran will be tasked with a San Diego lineup that looks menacing on paper but has been terrible against right-handed pitching. And now up against Verlander, I don’t see that trend changing.
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