If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Friday.
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New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox: NRFI (-102)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There’s only one team in baseball that scores less often in the first inning than the Mets. That team would be the Marlins, but that’s not the point. The point is that New York is one of the slowest starting offenses in the league and rarely jumps out to a lead. They tend to play from behind which hasn’t exactly worked out too well for them this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again on Friday against Kutter Crawford, who has been particularly excellent in the first frame recently. Crawford started the season in the rotation, quickly pitched himself out of the job and found himself in the bullpen. After weeks in the bullpen, Crawford made his return to the rotation when Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock went down with injuries. In his 8 outings since rejoining the rotation, Crawford has allowed a first-inning run only once. That one time was a leadoff home run by George Springer, so I chalk that up to one bad pitch.
There’s been a lot of disappointment regarding the Mets, but the silver lining has been Kodai Senga. After a rocky start to his MLB career, Senga has a 2.36 ERA in his last 6 starts and has had much better command. Walks were a big problem for the Japanese sensation in April and May, but he’s lowered his walk rate to the MLB average of 8% in his last 6 outings. More importantly for this bet, Senga has been fantastic in the first frame in the last 2 months. He’s allowed a first-inning run in just 2 of his last 11 starts, and I’m expecting him to extend that streak against Boston on Friday night. If he can keep Jarren Duran off the basepaths, there’s a great chance that the Red Sox go scoreless in the bottom of the first.
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Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-128)
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We can all agree that Lance Lynn is not a great pitcher. However, the veteran has actually been pretty good in the opening frame recently. He’s surrendered a first-inning run in just 1 of his last 6 starts, which is even more impressive when considering the lineups he held scoreless were the Braves, Red Sox, Mariners and Blue Jays twice. But back to Big Country’s flaws — he allows way too many walks, gets barreled far too often and will get caught up in going for the strikeout which causes his pitch count to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a walk and a strikeout or two from Lynn in the first, but he’s become accustomed to working around men on base.
As for the Twins, four words: Joe Ryan at home. It’s hard to pick the ace of Minnesota’s staff between Ryan, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober, but Ryan has made a strong case for it this season. After 19 starts, Ryan has a 3.77 ERA but just a 2.99 xERA which ranks in the 91st percentile. The right-hander has been good at almost everything this season considering he’s striking out nearly 30% of hitters, has a below-average walk rate, rarely gets barreled and, most importantly, has been superb in the first inning. Of his 9 home starts, Ryan has thrown a scoreless first in 7 of the outings. I attribute nearly all of his success to the setting since Ryan has been lights out in Minnesota this season. He’s allowing just a .200 batting average, .231 on-base percentage and a .538 OPS in 9 starts at Target Field this season. As long as Ryan doesn’t leave a fastball over the middle of the plate to Luis Robert Jr., I’m confident backing the NRFI in Minnesota.
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