Ricky Dimon
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The proverbial second half of the Major League Baseball season is upon us. With the All-Star break having come and gone, action on the diamond resumes on Friday. The first MLB slate since last Sunday features a full 15 games, starting with a 6:05 pm ET battle between San Diego and Philadelphia. There are also a couple of contests on Apple TV+ — San Francisco at Pittsburgh and Dodgers at Mets.
The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my best YRFI/NRFI bets for Friday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (+105)
The Reds are among the most fun teams in baseball, but they did not score a first-inning run in any of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. That stretch included 3 in a row against none other than the Brewers, who are sending Corbin Burnes to the mound tonight. Burnes is 7-5 with a 3.94 ERA and through 2 July starts he has given up only 4 earned runs in 13.0 innings. The right-hander has allowed a first-inning run just once in his last 7 outings, a stretch that includes 2 clean opening sheets against the Reds.
Cincinnati is countering with Graham Ashcraft, who has heated up. In his last 2 appearances the right-hander has surrendered a total of 2 runs in 12.2 innings of work. He has given up a first-inning run just once in his last 4 starts, during which he blanked the best team in baseball and YRFI-leading Braves in the opening frame. At plus-money, the NRFI has especially enticing value.
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Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-150)
Detroit and Seattle are among the worst teams when it comes to putting across first-inning runs. The Tigers rank 24th in that department at 0.45 per game, including just 0.41 on the road. Scoreless in the opening frame of their last 5 outings, the Mariners are 22nd overall at 0.46 per game. Factor today’s pitching matchup into the equation and there are even more reasons to like the NRFI.
Eduardo Rodriguez is going for Detroit and he boasts a 2.64 ERA to go along with a 1.00 WHIP. The left-hander had pitched a scoreless first inning in 11 consecutive appearances until Oakland finally victimized him last week. Rodriguez will be opposed by Seattle’s Luis Castillo, who is sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Castillo has allowed a first-inning run only twice in his last 9 starts and 1 of the blemishes came at the hands of Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lineup won’t be as tough. The price to pay for the NRFI may not be ideal, but I still think it has good enough value.
You can also read our MLB mega parlay (+1090 odds)
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