Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. This has been a very profitable market for our handicappers this season, so let’s keep the momentum going! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Friday, so let’s get right into it.
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Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (-110)
For our first pick on Friday’s slate, we’re going with the YRFI between the Nationals and Padres. A season ago, I targeted plenty of Nationals games where Patrick Corbin got the start, and that hasn’t changed in 2023. The left-hander’s advanced metrics are ghastly, ranking inside the bottom 6 percentile of all qualified starters in xSLG, xERA, xwOBA and strikeout percentage. He’s also in the 1st percentile of all starting pitchers in xBA at .324 through 15 starts this season. Against a Padres lineup that is loaded at the top with Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Juan Soto, I’m expecting more struggles for Corbin on Friday. Even with Joe Musgrove’s strong advanced metrics, he’s still prone to some early struggles this season. I’ll back the YRFI at this number.
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Houston Astros vs Los Angels Dodgers: YRFI (-120)
For our second YRFI pick on Friday’s card, we’re going with a run scored in the first inning in Los Angeles in this 2017 World Series rematch. Both the Astros and Dodgers have struggled a bit with consistency in the 2023 campaign, and that’s revealed itself in the pitching inconsistencies of both teams. J.P. France will get the ball for Houston and the 28-year-old rookie has been solid on paper this season (3.42 ERA, 6 runs allowed in his last 3 outings). However, his xERA of 4.11 and below-average advanced metrics suggest regression is coming against a Dodgers lineup that is loaded at the top. Fellow rookie Emmet Sheehan was terrific in his MLB debut for Los Angeles, but he’ll have a much tougher time in this one against Houston’s experienced lineup on Friday.
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