Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This market has been very profitable for us this season, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Friday, so let’s get right into it.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets: YRFI (-110)
For our YRFI pick on Friday’s slate, I’m going back to the well with fading both pitchers in this Cardinals vs Mets matchup. Miles Mikolas is a pitcher that I’ve been looking to fade for the majority of the season, and that won’t change in this one. Mikolas is coming off an outing where he surrendered 5 runs, which followed up a start where he allowed 10 hits. With an xERA of 4.87 and a whiff rate and xBA in the bottom 7 percentile of all qualified starters, Mikolas is ripe for the picking against the Mets.
On the other side, Tylor Megill has allowed 16 ER over his last 16 innings pitched and his advanced metrics (5.85 xERA, bottom 15% xBA & BB rate) that there’s still room for even more regression in his coming starts. We should see an early run at Citi Field.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-135)
For our NRFI pick on Friday’s card, I’m going with a quick inning in this Rays vs Padres showdown. Yu Darvish gets the ball for San Diego in this one, and that’s a good sign for the Padres at home. The right-hander has pitched to a 4.30 ERA this season, but has allowed just 10 earned runs in his last 5 outings at home. He should see more success against Tampa Bay, a lineup that has limited at-bats against Darvish to this point.
The Rays are countering with Shane McClanahan, who is currently the AL Cy Young favorite, and for good reason. With a 2.18 ERA and just 16 ER allowed over his last 10 starts, the southpaw should dominate once again on Friday. Juan Soto and Manny Machado have not faced McClanahan yet, so I’ll give the edge to the starter.
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