MLB picks Friday 5/12: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Always Sonny in Minnesota

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Kyle Lupas

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Born and raised in Northeast Pennsylvania and a former college baseball player, I'm an avid fan and handicapper of the MLB, NBA, NFL and NCAA's. Looking to find an edge by any means necessary. A lifelong Phillies fan, I was still unable to get my learner's permit the last time they made a postseason appearance. For Kyle Lupas media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-130)

We start off in Minnesota, with an interleague matchup between the AL Central-leading Twins and the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs. If you’ve been paying any attention this season, you know that tonight’s starters are both having career years and have shown no signs of sputtering out. Those hurlers I’m referring to are a pair of 33-year-old veterans in Drew Smyly and Sonny Gray.

Aside from a 6-spot in his first start of the season, Smyly has been as consistent an arm in the Major Leagues as any this season. Over the course of his next 6 starts, Smyly has given up just 7 earned runs, and against some great lineups. In 2 starts against the Dodgers and 1 against the Padres, Smyly surrendered 3 earned runs. Next is Sonny Gray, who holds the lowest ERA amongst eligible pitchers this season. Through 7 starts, Gray has allowed 6 earned runs in total, with 3 of those coming in his last start. Gray has yet to allow a 1st inning run this season, and I’m willing to ride this out until he does.

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San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks: YRFI (-120)

To cap things off, we head to Arizona, where I’m looking at some early run production between the Giants and D-backs. The 10-run game total set for tonight is among one of the highest you’ll find, and I believe a majority of those runs can come in the first half of this game. Ryne Nelson will take the mound for Arizona to begin the ballgame, and with a 6.00 ERA through 7 starts, it’s safe to say he’s experienced some rough outings. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in 5 of his 7 starts and he’s not a pitcher who relies on strikeouts. His 13.9% strikeout rate is one of the lowest throughout baseball and the Giants will likely go with a lefty-heavy lineup with Joc Pederson and LaMonte Wade Jr. near the top of the order.

Meanwhile, the Giants are going with a bullpen game and start things off with right-hander, John Brebbia. Brebbia is pitching to a career-worst 5.93 ERA, and has given up at least 1 run in 6 of his 16 appearances. While he does have some of the best strikeout stuff in the MLB (36.2% strikeout rate), his 10.3% walk rate is by far his worst, along with his 51.6% hard-hit rate. So while Brebbia has shown the ability to take care of an inning all on his own, more often than not opposing lineups have squared the ball up.

The Diamondbacks have been very solid against right-handed pitching this season and are batting .273 as a team. They’re also likely to load up on left-handed hitting at the top of the lineup with the likes of Corbin Carroll, switch hitter Ketel Marte, and Josh Rojas. Look for some early runs in this game.

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