If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Friday.
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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: NRFI (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
These teams opened the season with a 4-game series in Miami and now will head to Queens for a 3-game series. In the first 4 games between these NL East opponents, the NRFI was 3-1, and that includes when tonight’s starters, Tylor Megill and Edward Cabrera, started. Tonight’s starters took the mound in game 3 of the series, and both pitchers had solid outings. Megill went 5 innings and surrendered 2 runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts, but more importantly, he got through the first inning without allowing a run. He did allow a hit and a walk in the opening frame, but 2 strikeouts and a ground out closed the door on the inning.
Cabrera could be an X-factor in the Marlins rotation this season. He has so much potential and one of the highest-velocity changeups I’ve ever seen. When he faced the Mets last week, he walked two men in the first inning, which could have been some debut jitters, but he worked around the free passes and got through the inning unscathed. Pitching was the story of the series in Miami, and I expect that to continue at Citi Field. I’m taking the NRFI between two teams that have failed to show they can score consistently in the first frame.
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Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-113)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Giants were the most profitable NRFI team at home last season. The NRFI hit in 64% of games in San Francisco — the highest rate of any stadium. It was mostly a combination of poor hitting in pitcher-friendly conditions, and that should remain the same in 2023. The Giants recorded 2 high-scoring wins against the White Sox in their series in the South Side which has skewed their season stats because if you take out those 2 outliers, it shows who the Giants really are. They have a below-average offense that is not capable of scoring in bunches, even if they are facing Brad Keller.
Keller and the Royals have had a rather sluggish start to the season. They finished a 7-game homestand with just 1 win, and that was the same game they scored their only first-inning run in. However, the Royals were facing Jose Berrios, who has been horrendous in the last year and a half, so I’m taking that opening frame score with a grain of salt. Kansas City will be facing Alex Cobb, who had a solid 1st start with 6 strikeouts in 3.2 innings to the Yankees. Cobb returns home to San Francisco for his 2nd start of the season, which should help the chances of the NRFI. The veteran was outstanding at home last season with a 2.68 ERA in 16 starts, and facing a slumping Kansas City lineup should be just what Cobb needs.
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