If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Friday.
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Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-132)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I expected to see this line at a steeper price, so I’m more than happy to play it at this number. Marcus Stroman and Jesus Luzardo have been two of the best first-inning pitchers in the game as neither has allowed a run in the opening frame through 5 starts. In the first frame against Stroman, hitters are 4-for-19 (.211) with 7 strikeouts. All 4 hits against Stroman were singles, and none of them were able to go all the way around the bases and score. Facing a Marlins lineup, I’m only worried about Luis Arraez at the plate. He has proved that he can do damage against any pitcher, but Arraez has been in the clean-up spot recently. It would be huge for Stroman to avoid facing him in the first inning, especially since the Marlins average the 3rd-fewest first-inning runs per game.
The Cubs have had slightly more success in the first inning than the Marlins, but they are facing one of the more dominant first-frame pitchers in baseball. Statistically, the opening inning is Luzardo’s best. Hitters are 1-for-16 (.063) with 7 strikeouts against Luzardo in the first. The lone single has been the only baserunner he’s allowed since he has not issued a walk or hit a batter in the opening frame. If Cody Bellinger does not rejoin the team for this game, I expect Chicago to have Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ at the top of their order. Those hitters are a combined 4-for-17 (.235) with 6 strikeouts against Luzardo in their careers. I think there’s a solid chance we will see 6 up and 6 down, so this is my favorite NRFI pick of the day.
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New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers NRFI (-128)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After 5 starts, Jacob deGrom has yet to allow a baserunner in the first inning. Hitters are 0-for-15 with 7 strikeouts against the Rangers’ ace, so it’s safe to say he’s been the perfect pitcher to look for when backing the NRFI. And considering Aaron Judge won’t be in the lineup, DeGrom’s opening inning just got a lot easier. The only New York hitter at the top of the order who has had success against DeGrom in their career has been Anthony Rizzo, so as long as DeGrom can stay away from Rizzo’s sweet spots, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees go 1-2-3 in the first inning.
Clarke Schmidt was absolutely locked in during his last start against the Blue Jays. Toronto was able to get just 1 hit against Schmidt in the first 5 innings before finally finding some success against him in the third time through the order. If that version of Schmidt walks onto the mound on Friday night, it should be a scoreless first frame in Texas. His biggest weakness is hard contact which leads to extra-base hits, but since the Rangers lineup is unfamiliar with Schmidt, he has a slight edge on Texas’ top of the order. The pressure is on Schmidt for the final 3 outs of this NRFI, and I’m confident he can bring us home to a win.
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