If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Friday.
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Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is more of a statistics play than anything. The Tigers have been the worst team in the first inning this season by a wide margin. Detroit averages the fewest first-inning runs per game and has the highest NRFI yet of any team. Eleven of Detroit’s 19 games have featured a scoreless opening frame, which means the NRFI is hitting at a 65% clip for the Tigers. The root of their first-inning problems is obvious – their terrible top-of-the-order. With all due respect, Nick Maton, Riley Greene and Javier Baez aren’t exactly viewed as a Murderers’ Row by many teams. Those three hitters have a combined .198 batting average this season. Tyler Wells is starting for Baltimore, and I’m pretty confident that he can sit down Detroit’s weak top-of-the-order.
The part of this bet that will make me sweat is the bottom of the first when Michael Lorenzen will take the hill to face Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander. Lorenzen made his season debut last week against the Giants, and there was definitely some rust to shake off. However, the silver lining of that start was that his hard-hit rate was down and his strikeout rate was way up. Now in his second start of the season, Lorenzen should be more relaxed as he faces a Baltimore lineup that has failed to score in the first inning in 7 straight games. It only takes 6 outs, so here’s to hoping for a scoreless opening frame.
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Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels: NRFI (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is an interesting NRFI because I’m only worried about the bottom half of the inning. At the top of the first, the Royals lineup has to face Shohei Ohtani. It should be self-explanatory as to why I’m pretty confident Kansas City will put up a goose egg now. Ohtani has been fantastic on the mound this season with a 0.86 ERA and has held hitters to just a .091 batting average. He’s taken the hill 4 times this season, and hitters are 1-for-12 (.083) with 5 strikeouts against him in the first inning. I expect the Royals to continue that trend since the top of their order has struggled mightily against Ohtani. Bobby Witt Jr is 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts, MJ Melendez is 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts and Salvador Perez is 0-for-2 against the 2-way talent in their careers. If Ohtani gets to the cleanup hitter at the top of the first, I would be surprised.
Normally this is Kris Bubic’s spot in the rotation, but the lefty landed on the injured list a few days ago, so the Royals will begin this 3-game series with an opener. Taylor Clarke is a bullpen arm that earned the first-inning responsibility, and although he has an uphill battle against Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, I think he can avoid allowing a score. Clarke is a strikeout-first type of pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate which comes from his usage rate of a sweeper, slider and changeup for over 75% of his pitches. Those secondary pitches have either led to a strikeout or weak contact, and Clarke gets a lot of both. His weak contact rate is 13% this season — 9.2% higher than the MLB average. As long as he locates his offspeed pitches and doesn’t leave a hanger or two, I think this game begins without a run in the first inning.
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