Kyle Lupas
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If you don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning, the YRFI/NRFI market could be your favorite new betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. Sunday provides a full 15-game slate filled with excellent matchups, and I’ve got two games on my radar. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-120)
The Oakland Athletics are simply a bad baseball team, and their 12-1 loss last night puts them at 12-48 on the season. Luis Arraez of the Marlins remained the hottest hitter in baseball with a 5-for-5 night and is now hitting .390 through 59 games. Betting a NRFI today is partially a fade on the A’s and partially due to the pitching matchup. Oakland is dead last with 201 runs scored this season and has been scoreless in the 1st inning of the last 5 games. To make things worse, Miami will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound, who has allowed only 1 run in the 1st inning through 11 starts.
Alcantara hasn’t been great overall with a 4.93 ERA, but most of the damage has come in the later innings. Opposing lineups are batting .185 in their first plate appearance, but that jumps to .216 their second time up, and .297 once the lineup goes around the third time. So all-in-all, Alcantara has been sound in the early innings. Paul Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and was productive in his first outing last week, surrendering 1 earned run on 4 hits, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts through 4.0 innings of work. The top of Miami’s lineup is solid, but Arraez is not a home-run threat, and as a team Miami prefers to face left-handed pitching. I’m backing a scoreless 1st inning in Miami.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-148)
The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins wrap up their series this afternoon and it has been low-scoring over the last 2 days. There have been a combined 7 runs scored in the last 2 games after these teams put up 13 on Thursday. Right-hander Triston McKenzie will make his season debut for Cleveland after suffering a shoulder strain at the end of March. McKenzie was sent to rehab with the Columbus Clippers on May 20 and pitched well in 2 of his 3 outings. He’s coming off a great 2022 season in which he owned a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His strikeout rate and chase rate are both above league-average, and the Twins could be without both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who are currently listed as day-to-day.
The Twins counter with Joe Ryan, who owns the 9th-best ERA in the AL at 2.77 and has been extremely consistent this season. He’s coming off his worst start of the season in which he allowed 5 earned runs in Houston, but I’m expecting him to bounce back today. He has already faced this Guardians lineup and allowed just 2 earned runs across 6.0 innings. More importantly, he’s gone scoreless in the 1st inning in 9 of his 11 starts, so I’ll take those odds. His 29.1% strikeout rate to 5.0% walk rate are elite and his chase rate is in the 98th percentile. Look for a lower-scoring game in general and a scoreless 1st.
You can also check out our MLB mega parlay for Sunday’s games
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