Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. A 10-game Monday slate gives us plenty of opportunities and I’ve narrowed the options down to my two favorite bets. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers: YRFI (-120)
The Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers rank 28th and 29th in runs scored this season, so any initial skepticism about backing an early run in their game is certainly warranted. However, over the past few days these teams have been scoring at a much higher clip than we have been accustomed to seeing. The Royals put up a 10-spot on the Angels on Saturday, while the Tigers have pushed across 33 runs over their last 6 games. Only the Giants and Braves have scored more runs in that time. Both lineups should also see favorable matchups given the starting pitching battle between Reese Olson and Jordan Lyles.
Olson will take the ball for Detroit and the 23-year-old right-hander has only 13.1 MLB innings under his belt. Through 3 starts, Olson owns a 6.08 ERA and comes off a rough start against the Braves in which he surrendered 6 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 walks before being pulled in the 3rd inning. Lyles takes the hill in the bottom of the inning and he has been one of the worst 1st-inning performers in baseball this season. Through 14 starts, Lyles carries a 7.71 ERA in the 1st inning and has given up 6 home runs. He’s managed to escape the 1st inning unscathed in only 2 of his 14 starts. Expect a red-hot Tigers’ lineup to be aggressive and jump on Lyles early.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-142)
The next game I’m circling is a pitchers’ duel in Milwaukee between the Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Milwaukee, carrying the worst ERA he’s had since owning a 8.82 ERA across 49.0 innings in 2019. As bad as that may sound, Burnes still owns a very respectable 3.44 ERA that’s been on a steady decline since mid-April. The strikeout numbers aren’t what they once were, but Burnes has recorded at least 7 punchouts in his last 4 outings while inducing weak contact. He tossed 8.0 scoreless innings against the D-Backs earlier in the season, so I’ll back him tonight to get us another.
Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who has been among one of the best pitchers in the National League this season. His 3.04 ERA ranks 7th-best in the NL and his 9.65 SO/9 is just below teammate and current NL Cy Young Award favorite Zac Gallen. He’s putting together an unbelievable season and has been tremendous in the 1st inning of ballgames. Through 14 starts, Gallen has tossed 11 scoreless 1st innings, including 6.0 scoreless against the Brewers. I’m backing the starting pitching tonight and siding with a quiet 1st inning.
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