Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may.
Sunday provides some West Coast action with games taking place in Oakland and Los Angeles. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-130)
It took 12 innings, but the Philadelphia Phillies were able to extend their winning streak to 5 games after a 3-2 victory in Oakland yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, the A’s have returned to their losing ways and have now dropped 4 in a row after riding an unexpected 7-game winning streak early in the month. With a 19-54 record, it’s to nobody’s surprise that Oakland ranks dead last in batting average and OPS, while ranking 29th in runs scored. In addition to that, the A’s have gone 8 consecutive games without scoring a run in the 1st inning. For that reason, I’m fading the A’s and backing Zack Wheeler to toss a shutout 1st inning. Wheeler owns a 3.73 ERA on the season but has put together back-to-back quality starts in which he’s allowed a combined 5 hits, 2 walks, and 1 earned run across 13.1 innings.
The Phillies pose a larger threat offensively, but I believe this matchup may favor A’s starting pitcher Hogan Harris – at least early on. The 26-year-old left-hander carries a 4.84 ERA across 22.1 innings but has been productive in his last 4 appearances, providing at least 5.0 innings while giving up 3 earned runs or fewer. Going through the top of the Phillies lineup should actually be favorable towards Harris. Kyle Schwarber’s at-bats typically end with a home run, walk, or strikeout as he’s only hitting .178 on the season, Trea Turner has much better splits against right-handed pitching, Nick Castellanos is always a threat, but Bryce Harper is only hitting .177 against lefties and his power numbers aren’t there, with only 3 homers. I’ll back a scoreless 1st inning in Oakland.
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San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-125)
The San Francisco Giants piled on 17 hits and 15 runs last night as they shutout the Los Angeles Dodgers for their 6th consecutive win. Over their 6-game win streak, the Giants are averaging 9.7 runs per game while scoring at least 7 runs in 5 of those 6 games. Despite the increased output of scoring, I’m leaning towards a scoreless 1st inning since they’ll be going up against Dodgers’ right-hander Tony Gonsolin. After posting a 2.14 ERA over 24 starts in 2022, Gonsolin has raised the bar in 2023, owning a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across his first 9 outings. The Dodgers have maybe been overly cautious with Gonsolin at times since he’s seemingly not run into any trouble, yet only averaging 82.7 pitches per game. However, length doesn’t matter for the purpose of this bet and I’m glad to report that Gonsolin has surrendered 1st-inning runs just 1 time this season.
The Dodgers have been shaky of late and they haven’t won consecutive games since the end of May. A 15-0 loss last night was about as bad as it gets and their first 3 batters in the lineup went a combined 2-for-11 with 0 walks. Logan Webb will take the ball for San Francisco and he’s having himself a decent season so far. Through 14 starts, Webb owns a 3.15 ERA along with a career-low 4.7% walk rate. Like Gonsolin, Webb has been extremely efficient early in ballgames and has only given up 1 run in the 1st inning this season and it came in his very first start of the season. It’s hard not to play the trend, especially with the Dodgers coming off a miserable performance yesterday.
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