Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may.
Wednesday provides a loaded 16-game slate with plenty of action, and I’ve found my two favorite YRFI/NRFI spots for today. Before I break down these games, be sure to go check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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New York Yankees vs New York Mets: YRFI (+116)
The New York Yankees erased an early 5-run deficit last night and took game 1 of the Subway Series from the New York Mets. Tonight, they’ll finish off the quick, 2-game series with visions of a sweep when Gerrit Cole takes the hill. Cole is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and comes off back-to-back quality outings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. Most importantly, Cole has tossed a scoreless 1st inning in 11 of his 14 outings and the Mets are without Pete Alonso for the foreseeable future. However, the 1st inning has been Cole’s kryptonite to a certain extent, as his ERA in that inning specifically increases to 3.86. Cole has also been tagged at a higher clip of late, with all 9 of his homers allowed coming in his last 7 starts.
The Mets counter with 40-year-old Justin Verlander, who will make his 8th start of the season. Verlander’s first season in New York has been a bit of a struggle as he carries a career-worst 4.85 ERA and a 2.54 strikeout to walk ratio. Much like Cole, Verlander has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, already surrendering 7 homers after allowing just 12 in 175 innings a season ago. Verlander has also been a slow starter this season, giving up more runs in the 1st inning (7) than any other inning. On paper this appears to be a premier pitching matchup, especially without Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge in the lineups, but both teams came out swinging last night and I’d expect a similar approach tonight. I’m taking the side of some early runs in Queens.
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Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-142)
We get a duo of aces on the mound tonight in Houston when Josiah Gray and Framber Valdez take the ball for their respective teams. Each of these lineups have been slumping of late, as the Nationals are 1-7 over their last 8 games while averaging just 3.13 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.2. Meanwhile, the Astros are 2-5 across their last 7 games, with 4 of those games resulting in 2 runs or less by a team that’s averaging just over 4.5 runs per game on the year. I don’t think tonight is the night for either of these teams to break out offensively given the level of pitching they’ll see.
Josiah Gray has made significant progress from last season, with his ERA going from 5.02 across 28 starts in 2022, down to an even 3.00 through 13 starts thus far in 2023. No pitcher in the NL walked more batters or allowed more home runs than Gray last season, and he’s at least fixed one of those issues this season. His control issues still exist, and his walk rate has actually increased from 10.2% last season to 11.9% this season. However, he’s introduced a cutter this season and decreased the usage of his 4-seam fastball which appears to have also decreased the number of balls flying over the fence. After allowing 38 homers in 2022, Gray has given up just 8 this season, with 3 coming in his very first start.
For the Astros, they’ll counter with left-hander Framber Valdez, making his 14th start of the season. Valdez is as reliable as they come and he’s having himself a career year, ranking 5th in the MLB with a 2.36 ERA. The Nationals are hitting .294 off left-handed pitching this season, but Valdez actually has much better splits against right-handed batters than he does left-handed. Righties are batting just .213 off Valdez as opposed to lefties who are batting .308, but with a much smaller sample size. The biggest edge Valdez has in this matchup is just how effective he’s been early on in his starts. Opposing lineups are hitting .157 in their first plate appearance against Valdez and he owns a 7.00 strikeout to walk ratio his first time though the lineup. I like both pitchers early in this game and will take a scoreless 1st inning in Houston.
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