Kyle Lupas
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If you don’t like sitting around for a whole baseball game, the YRFI/NRFI market could be your new favorite be. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. Monday gives us a condensed, 8-game slate after a jam-packed weekend, but it’s not without betting value. I have two games I’d like to touch on, but before I do, remember you can also check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals: YRFI (-111)
The Elly De La Cruz era has begun in Cincinnati and the switch-hitting infielder is already making an immediate impact. De La Cruz has had at least 1 hit in each of his first 6 games and the Reds have gone 4-2 since his debut. There’s no denying that the Reds have seen an immediate boost in production as they’ve put up 33 runs over their past 6 games. I’m expecting that to roll over into their series with the Kansas City Royals, who have now lost 6 consecutive games. Zack Greinke takes the ball for the Royals tonight and he is pitching to a 4.59 ERA across 13 starts. May certainly went much better for the 39-year-old than April, but he’s coming off a short start against the Marlins in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings.
For the Reds, it’ll be right-hander Luke Weaver making his 10th start of the season. Weaver has struggled to string together quality outings this season as he owns a 6.27 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. After a decent outing at Fenway, the wheels fell off last week against the Dodgers as Weaver surrendered 7 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks across 3.2 innings. The Royals are not on the same level as the Dodgers’ lineup, but Weaver has given up at least 1 run in the 1st inning in 4 of his 9 outings and his last outing was rough. I’m looking for some early runs in this game and wouldn’t be surprised to see a crooked number on the scoreboard after the 1st inning.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-125)
What in the world has got into the Oakland Athletics? The A’s have the worst record in baseball but have won their last 2 series and are riding a 5-game winning streak with a +19 run differential. I think it may be the highlight of their season however, as they begin a series with the best team in baseball tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays continue to win games in bunches and are 8-1 over their last 9 games. The biggest reason for this success has been their stellar pitching. Tampa Bay hasn’t given up more than 4 runs in the last 9 games and the Rays’ starting pitching owns a 2.36 ERA in that span.
Tonight, the rotation turns over to Zach Eflin who has really found his way in Florida. Through 11 starts, he’s posting a 2.97 ERA and a career-best 0.96 WHIP. Of those 11 starts, Eflin has posted 8 scoreless 1st innings and he’s hardly handing out free passes with a 3.5% walk rate. Given how effective he’s been thus far, I like his chances to quiet the A’s lineup. Oakland counters with right-hander James Kaprielian, who has pitched both out of the bullpen and in the starting rotation. Kaprielian was moved to the pen after 3 brutal outings to begin the season and it appears to have served him well. Since moving back to the rotation, Kaprielian is pitching to a 3.90 ERA across 5 starts. Kaprielian’s 12.9% walk rate is certainly a concern and he walked 5 batters in his last outing, but we only need him to be solid in the 1st inning. I’m siding with a scoreless 1st in Oakland.
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