Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. A new week presents new opportunities, and on Monday we have ourselves an 11-game slate starting in Cleveland and ending in San Francisco. I’ve honed in on a few games with betting value, so let’s get right into it!
But before we do that, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-125)
Our first game takes place in Pittsburgh, with a game between the slumping Pirates and the surging Rockies. After a hot start to the season, Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight games and looks more like their team from 2022 as opposed to a team sitting atop the NL Central standings. Over their 7-game losing streak, the Pirates have scored a grand total of 9 runs, are batting .175 as a team, and rank 29th in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
While I don’t have a ton of faith in Rockies’ starter Kyle Freeland, he’s actually pitched quite well this season and we only need a good 1st inning from him for this bet to cash. Through 7 outings, he’s already had 4 quality starts and threw a 5-inning shutout against the Brewers last week. Meanwhile, Mitch Keller gives the Pirates the best chance at quieting the bats of Colorado. Keller is pitching to a 3.32 ERA and has a hard-hit rate that falls in the 95th percentile. Combine that with a 7.6% walk rate and it creates all sorts of trouble for opposing lineups. Look for a scoreless 1st inning and possibly a lower scoring game in general.
Check out today’s MLB mega parlay at +824 odds
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Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-128)
The Yankees lineup is still without both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and boy could the Yankees use them. Since Stanton was placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain on April 16, the Yankees have struggled to produce at the plate. Up until Stanton’s injury, the Yankees were averaging 4.8 runs per game through their first 15 games. Over the next 11 games, that number dropped to 3.67 runs per game and has now dipped all the way down to 3.11 over their last 9 games – which is the amount of time the Yankees have been without their 2 sluggers.
Tonight, the Yankees will go up against left-hander JP Sears, who could very well give New York some trouble despite his 5.06 ERA. The Yankees have been one of the worst lineups against lefties this season – batting only .218. Given Sears doesn’t give up many walks and has an above-average chase rate, he should be able to find some success against a shorthanded Yankees’ lineup. The Yankees also have Nestor Cortes on the mound with a great bounce-back spot ahead of him. Cortes has been hit extremely hard at times this season, and saw his ERA spike to 4.91 after surrendering 7 earned runs in his last start against the Rangers. Luckily, all signs point to Cortes getting back on track, especially his 3.26 xERA. It’s also important to note that many of the runs Cortes has given up this season have come in the latter half of the game. The 4 runs given up to the Rangers in the 1st inning of his last outing were the only 1st-inning runs he’s allowed this season and 11 of his 18 earned runs have come between innings 4 through 6. I foresee Cortes getting out to a great start against the worst team in baseball.
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