Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. Monday’s menu serves up a 12-game slate filled with great games, and I’ve got two games that are looking extra savory. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-136)
The downward spiral that is Patrick Corbin has been extensively covered ever since he signed a 6-year, $140 million contract in 2019. Since that contract was signed, Corbin hasn’t just underperformed, he’s been one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball, and I’m not being hyperbolic when saying that. The statistics back it up – Corbin is 18-47 with a 5.72 ERA since the 2020 season. Now to Corbin’s credit, his 4.87 ERA this season is his best mark since 2020, but his 5.61 xERA suggests he’s had good fortune. Other than that, his advanced metrics aren’t great, including career-worsts in both xBA and strikeout rate.
Left-hander David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets today, and by all accounts has looked so bad on the hill he makes Corbin look like the NL Cy Young Award front-runner. Through 7 starts, Peterson owns a 7.68 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, and has given up 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his outings. He’s given up a 1st inning run in 3 of his last 4 games, and teams have barreled him up for most the season. The Washington Nationals aren’t the scariest lineup in the NL East, but they’re to be respected, especially against left-handed pitching. Entering this series, the Nats are batting .297 off lefties, and they should have some early opportunities against Peterson. I’m fading both starters early in this game and backing the YRFI.
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Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-132)
After 5 starts, Shohei Ohtani carried a 0.64 ERA with 8 hits allowed in 28 innings. He’s finally fallen back to Earth, allowing 12 earned runs over his last 3 starts, bumping his ERA up to 2.74. While he’s given up a couple of runs, many could argue that Ohtani is having a better year on the mound this season than he did after posting a 2.33 ERA in 2022. His walk rate is up to 11%, but his 36.3% strikeout rate and .155 xBA are both career-bests. This appears to be a great spot for Ohtani given the Orioles have only pushed across 2 runs over their last 2 games.
I know it’s difficult to be an advocate for a rookie pitcher trying to get past Mike Trout and Ohtani, but hear me out. Grayson Rodriguez is the #1 prospect in the Orioles system for a reason, and his last outing against the Rays was case in point. Rodriguez surrendered 2 solo homers over 5.2 innings against the best offense in baseball, which any team would take. He has above-average strikeout stuff and his last 2 starts at home have gone quite well. This will be a tough test, but I like the rookies chances to at least escape the 1st inning unscathed.
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