Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP looks in at the Phillies vs Mets game at Citi Field with 3 legs and a nice +496 payout. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Phillies vs Mets Same Game Parlay.
Phillies ML (+110)
Kyle Schwarber to record a hit (-155)
Kodai Senga over 5.5 strikeouts (-136)
Phillies vs Mets Same Game Parlay odds: +496
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Philadelphia Phillies ML (+110) over New York Mets
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will square off for their first meeting of the season tonight at Citi Field, and both teams are staring up at the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings. The Phillies had a chance to take 3 of 4 from the Braves over the weekend but wound up splitting their series with a loss on Sunday night, whereas the Mets dropped 2 of 3 in Colorado to the Rockies. Tonight, left-hander Ranger Suárez takes the ball for only his 4th start of the year, and will be opposite Kodai Senga, making his 10th start for the Mets.
Since returning to the Phillies after a rehab stint due to a left elbow strain, Suárez has struggled considerably. He’s pitching to a 9.82 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP through his first 3 outings. As bad as that appears on paper, I don’t think there’s much reason to worry just yet. Suárez has been extremely unlucky thus far when taking into account his 4.86 xERA and a career-best 29.7% hard-hit rate. He’s been inducing weak contact and has simply had some tough breaks to start the year.
On the other hand, Senga has been hit quite hard at times and owns a 40.5% hard-hit rate. His 28.6% strikeout rate minimizes some of his mistakes, but Senga is often his own worst enemy. His 14.6% walk rate is sky-high and he’s issued an equal amount or more walks than hits in 4 of his 9 starts. Senga’s command issues haven’t improved either, and his 5 walks in 5.0 innings his last time out was his highest mark of the season. I don’t have enough trust in Senga just yet to take him over a proven Major League pitcher in Suárez.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today’s action — we’re on a 38-18 run!
Kyle Schwarber to record a hit (-155)
Kyle Schwarber is undoubtably struggling at the plate this season and is batting just .168 to this point. His power numbers are still there with 13 home runs, and he ranks 3rd with 39 walks, but the hits haven’t come at a high clip. He’s batting .123 in the month of May and is 10 for his last 86 at-bats dating back to April 29. But even with all that said, I still have a tremendous amount of belief in Schwarber to get on track. Schwarber is notorious for getting off to slow starts and is batting .188 in May over his career.
However, Schwarber’s batting .258 in June, and even though June is still a couple of days away, he showed some positive signs in the Atlanta series. He went 2-for-13 in the 4-game series with a homer, but of the 5 balls he put in play for an out, 2 were considered hard contact and 1 was a homer robbed by Michael Harris II in center field. With Senga’s command issues, I’d expect Schwarber to hit in some favorable counts and continue to put together quality at-bats.
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Kodai Senga over 5.5 strikeouts (-136)
Although Senga has struggled with walks, he still possesses elite strikeout stuff and is only 2 starts removed from a 12-strikeout performance against the Tampa Bay Rays. Through 9 outings, he’s gone at least 5.0 innings 8 times and has covered 5.5 strikeouts 7 times. Senga’s forkball – or “ghost pitch” as it’s been called – has been his secret to strikeout success. It’s generated 33 of his 61 strikeouts and has an xBA of 0.91.
The Phillies rank 11th in team strikeouts and have the 2nd highest chase rate at 31.6%. Senga could certainly give this lineup some problems, and the Phillies just struck out 9 times in 6.0 innings against Spencer Strider. This number seems low in my opinion, and it’s been getting more action towards the over since I began writing this. Back Senga to record 6+ strikeouts at home tonight.
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