Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP previews the Phillies vs Braves NLDS game at Truist Park with a decent payout at +519 odds. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Phillies vs Braves Same Game Parlay.
Phillies ML (+175)
Ronald Acuna Jr. to record 2+ total bases (-135)
Phillies over 3.5 total runs (-104)
Phillies vs Braves Same Game Parlay: (+519)
Phillies ML (+175)
In maybe the most intriguing series of the 4, we get an NLDS rematch from last season between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. Each team has represented the National League in the World Series the past 2 seasons, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the winner of this series go on to win the NL pennant. Last season, it was the Phillies winning in 4 games and Atlanta admittedly looked rusty after receiving a first-round bye and an extended break. The Braves haven’t played since October 1, but they’ve taken the approach of allowing fans to watch their simulated games to increase the intensity of their workouts while waiting on their opponent. Tonight, we see if their strategy pays off when Spencer Strider takes the hill.
Strider is undoubtably a power pitcher in every sense of the word. His 4-seam fastball sits at 97.3 mph and he recorded 44 more strikeouts this season than any other pitcher across baseball. Put it simply, when Strider is on, he can create havoc for an opposing lineup. That being said, Strider hasn’t pitched well over his last 6 outings and owns a 5.67 ERA in that span. Additionally, Strider has just 1 postseason start, which came against the Phillies last season in Game 3 of the NLDS. The Phillies went on to win 9-1 and Strider surrendered 5 earned runs across just 2.1 innings of work. For the Phillies, they’ll go with left-hander Ranger Suarez making his first start since September 27. Suarez has seen some regression this season with a 4.18 ERA across 22 starts, but his postseason performance last season was a huge reason for the Phillies’ run to the World Series. Suarez made 5 appearances (3 starts) last postseason and allowed just 2 earned runs across 14.2 innings. There’s no question that Strider is the better pitcher in this game tonight, but Suarez has pitched in some big postseason spots and the Phillies can keep up with this deep Atlanta lineup. The price is too good to pass up.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to record 2+ total bases (-135)
Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to be your National League MVP this season, and for good reason. Acuna Jr. finished the regular season with 73 stolen bases and 41 home runs and is the only player since Ty Cobb in 1911 to have over 75 extra-base hits and 70 stolen bases in a season. What’s most impressive about Acuna Jr.’s season is that he seemingly didn’t fall into a slump at any point of the season. His worst month of the season came all the way back in May and he still hit .298 with 7 home runs and 10 stolen bases.
Acuna Jr. has tormented nearly every ballclub he’s gone up against this season and the Phillies are not excluded. In 13 games against Philadelphia, Acuna Jr. hit .339 with 4 home runs and 7 extra-base hits in total. In the last 7 games against Philadelphia, Acuna Jr. recorded 2+ bases on 5 occasions for a total of 32 bases. Given Acuna Jr. was injured during last season’s postseason, I’m expecting him to have some extra motivation tonight.
Phillies over 3.5 total runs (-104)
The Atlanta Braves got much of the attention this season for their overpowering lineup, and deservingly so, but the Phillies had a great year offensively themselves. Philadelphia finished top 10 in runs scored, home runs, batting average, and OPS. In 13 games against the Braves this season, the Phillies scored an average of 4.5 runs per game while scoring over 3 runs in 8 of those 13 games. While the Phillies were held to under 4 runs in 3 of the 4 games they faced Strider this season, Strider has significantly regressed over his last 6 outings, and he’ll likely be relied upon to pitch deep into this game given the fact Charlie Morton will be sidelined for the duration of the series. The Philadelphia offense did damage in their 2 games against the Marlins, scoring 11 runs on 18 hits, and I think it carries over into the divisional round.
