Kyle Lupas
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We have ourselves a series in Arizona after the Diamondbacks mounted a comeback in Game 4, overcoming a 5-2 deficit heading into the bottom of the seventh inning. The Phillies’ bullpen collapsed and there are some serious questions to be asked about that pen heading into Game 5. With that being said, Philadelphia will need length from their ace in Zack Wheeler, and with Zac Gallen going for the D-backs, this has all the makings of a classic.
I have 3 bets lined up for tonight’s big game and when parlayed they pay out at +867 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Keep reading along as I break down each leg of this Game 5 NLCS Same Game Parlay.
NRFI (-136)
Phillies F5 -0.5 (+120)
Ketel Marte 2+ total bases (-105)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay: (+867)
NRFI (-136)
Zac Gallen had his fair share of struggles in front of a raucous Philadelphia crowd in Game 1 but won’t have to worry about that tonight in front of the D-back faithful. I expect Gallen to be much more relaxed at home, and his splits show a major edge when pitching at Chase Field. Through 16 regular season home starts, Gallen owns a 2.47 ERA alongside a 12-3 record. Compare that to his 18 road starts, where Gallen registered a 4.42 ERA and has a 4.96 ERA through 3 postseason starts – all of which have come on the road. Look for Gallen to feed off the crowd tonight as he pitches his first postseason game in at home.
Zack Wheeler is undoubtably the best starting pitcher remaining this postseason and he’s somehow gotten even better in 2023 than he was during his remarkable 2022 postseason run. Through 3 postseason starts, Wheeler has posted a 2.37 ERA 1 season after posting a 2.78 postseason ERA. Unlike Gallen, it appears Wheeler prefers to pitch on the road, at least according to his home/away splits where Wheeler is posting a 3.16 ERA on the road as compared to a 4.13 ERA at home. Regardless of where this game is held, Wheeler has been downright dominant in the postseason with 7 quality starts in 9 attempts the past 2 seasons. In addition to that, Wheeler has tossed a scoreless first inning in 8 of his last 9 outings. Back a scoreless first inning here in Game 5.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for both games today
Phillies F5 -0.5 (+120)
The Phillies will have to jump out to an early lead in this game if they want to return to Philly with a 3-2 series lead. In Game 1, the Phillies held a 5-0 lead after the first 5 innings, and I have to side with Wheeler over Gallen given his dominance this postseason. I lean towards Philadelphia full game ML, but there are so many question marks with their bullpen after last night that I’d much rather completely remove them from the equation. Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Craig Kimbrel, and Orion Kerkering have all thrown on back-to-back nights, so their availability tonight is up in the air. Availability aside, there has to be a lack of trust right now with both Kerkering and Kimbrel after their poor showings in Games 3 and 4 and the Phillies are essentially relying on 11 pitchers as neither Taijuan Walker nor Michael Lorenzen have seen the mound through the first 4 games.
I’ll look for another dominant performance from Wheeler, who has been a force not only this postseason, but for most of the second half of the regular season. Wheeler’s advanced metrics are all above league average, including a 5.1% barrel rate and 3.21 xERA. I also have a lack of trust in Gallen not only for his underwhelming Game 1 performance, but because his underlying metrics aren’t anything to get excited about. Gallen has above average metrics in chase rate (65th percentile) and strikeout rate (26.0%), but he finds way too many barrels. Gallens’ 9.2% barrel rate ranks in the 27th percentile, while his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 5th percentile (46.2%). The Phillies scored all 5 of their runs off Gallen in Game 1 with 8 hits, 9 hard hit balls, and 3 home runs. Gallen is certainly capable of a bounce back game tonight, but he didn’t show me enough in Game 1 to back him over Wheeler.
Ketel Marte 2+ total bases (-105)
Ketel Marte may have gone 0-for-3 against Zack Wheeler in Game 1 of this series, but he’s had success against him in the past. Marte is 4-for-13 lifetime against Wheeler with 1 double and 1 home run, so if anyone’s going to beat Wheeler it could be the man in the leadoff spot. In addition to the head-to-head success against Wheeler, Marte has been locked in this postseason. Marte has a 13-game postseason hitting streak going when you include his games against the Dodgers in 2017, and he now has 15 hits through the first 9 games of this postseason. With hits come bases, and Marte has recorded 2+ bases in 7 of his first 9 postseason games. Getting this at nearly even odds seems like a steal to me, especially since Marte is looking to hit (2 walks in 39 at-bats). Back Marte to extend his hitting streak and continue to produce at the top of the lineup.
