Kyle Lupas
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We had our first postseason walk-off last night in Arizona after Ketel Marte roped a single into center field, giving the Diamondbacks their first NLCS win since 2001. They will look to ride that momentum into Game 4 as they attempt to even the series and guarantee the series goes back to Philadelphia. There’s plenty to take into account for tonight’s game as the Phillies turn to left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, while the D-Backs go the bullpen approach.
I have 3 bets lined up for tonight, and when parlayed they provide just over a 7/1 payout on FanDuel Sportsbook. Keep reading as I break down each individual leg of this +708 odds parlay.
Phillies F5 innings -0.5 (+108)
Cristopher Sanchez to record 4+ strikeouts (+152)
Under 9.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay: +708 odds
Philadelphia Phillies F5 innings -0.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (+108)
I was conflicted as to whether I would make a play on the Phillies full game ML (-130) or make a play on them to lead after the first 5 innings of this ballgame. Ultimately, my decision came down to the bullpen availability for each team, and the D-backs are in much better position in that department. Arizona should have nearly all of their relievers available today, whereas the Phillies will likely be without Jose Alvarado, who pitched 2.0 innings last night, and Craig Kimbrel, who threw 24 pitches and hasn’t pitched on back-to-back days in nearly a month. Therefore I think the D-backs are in better shape to score some runs in the later innings than early.
In the early innings, the D-Backs will be going up against Cristopher Sanchez, who I’ve personally been high on this season. It may come as a surprise that the Phillies are opting for Sanchez over Taijuan Walker, but there’s no denying Sanchez’ consistency. Consistency is what every team wants from their starter in the postseason, and Sanchez registered a 3.44 ERA through 19 appearances and 18 starts this season. In 16 of those 18 starts, Sanchez allowed 3 earned runs or fewer and he managed to provide at least 5.0 innings in 14 of those starts.
While Sanchez can potentially provide length and be the only Philadelphia pitcher we see in the first 5 innings of this game, the same can’t be said for the Snakes. Arizona is expected to go with a bullpen game, with Joe Mantiply serving as the games opener. Mantiply pitched in Game 2 but recorded just 1 out after allowing 3 earned runs on 3 hits and 2 walks. Mantiply will be used as a left-on-left matchup against both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, but his sinker, curveball and changeup mix doesn’t seem to matchup up well. Opposing batters are hitting .308 against Mantiply’s sinker, which Schwarber and Harper both have positive run values against. From there it could be Ryne Nelson who is asked to provide length, but Nelson also struggled in Game 2. He allowed 3 earned runs on 4 hits and 1 walk in just 0.2 innings and his underlying metrics are not great. Nelson owns a 5.30 xERA, 15.5 strikeout rate, 42.7% hard-hit rate, and 11.6% barrel rate. I like some early runs for Philadelphia and I trust Sanchez to keep the D-Backs in check.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for both games today
Cristopher Sanchez to record 4+ strikeouts (+152)
I was very surprised when I saw this number, not because Sanchez is an elite strikeout pitcher, but because he’s extremely efficient and I believe the Phillies want to get 5.0 innings from him if possible. As stated previously, Sanchez has gone at least 5.0 innings in 14 of his 18 starts while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 16 starts. He has also recorded 4+ strikeouts in 15 of those starts and has a chase rate that falls in the 97th percentile. I do think Sanchez pitches long enough to allow him the opportunity to rack up some strikeouts given he is only walking 4.0% of his batters faced, but also because the Diamondbacks haven’t been lighting it up offensively. Arizona has struck out at least 9 times as a team in each of the first 3 games and the 9 hits it produced last night were more hits than it had in Games 1 and 2 combined. Even then, the Snakes only plated 2 runs last night. Look for Sanchez to provide some length and reach this number.
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Under 9.5 (-110)
I think the Phillies have a significant starting pitching advantage today, and even though I expect them to do some early damage I still find this game falling under the 9.5 run total set. The Phillies’ starting pitching has been remarkable this postseason, and Arizona’s offense has been non-existent through the first 3 games. Arizona has yet to score a run in the first 5 innings this series and I’ve talked at length about Sanchez and his consistency. If Sanchez produces the way he has in the regular season, it should put a Philly bullpen with a 1.63 postseason ERA in good position. Arizona’s bullpen hasn’t been nearly as dominant, posting a 3.41 ERA this postseason, but they have everyone available and will be able to get the exact matchups they want. Aside from Game 2 when the Phillies put up 10 runs, the D-Backs’ bullpen has done their job — allowing just 1 run in 6.1 innings.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
