Kyle Lupas
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The Philadelphia Phillies won a massive Game 5 and now have two opportunities to grab a win at home and win their second consecutive National League pennant. Frankly, I don’t believe the Phillies will need two games in order to finish the D-backs and I’m projecting them to get the job done tonight behind their most tenured player in Aaron Nola.
I have 3 bets lined up for this afternoon’s game and when parlayed they pay out at 8/1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Keep reading along as I break down each leg of this Game 6 NLCS Same Game Parlay.
Phillies ML (-184)
Merrill Kelly under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
Corbin Carroll to record a stolen base (+220)
Same Game Parlay odds: (+800)
Phillies ML (-184) over Arizona Diamondbacks
The series shifts back to Philadelphia this afternoon where the Phillies are a perfect 6-0 this postseason. Playing at Citizens Bank Park gives an undeniable edge to the Phillies as they’ve outscored their opponents 39-8 in those 6 games. We have a Game 2 rematch as Aaron Nola and Merrill Kelly take the ball for their respective ballclubs. Game 2 ended in a 10-0 victory for the Phillies, but despite the score, Kelly was extremely efficient in his outing. Kelly allowed 4 earned runs on 3 hits across 5.2 innings, the only problem was that all 3 hits went for home runs. Regardless, Kelly allowed just 2 runs through the first 5 innings and gave his team a fighting chance to get back into this game. I am however concerned with Kelly pitching in Philly for a second time, as his ERA this season goes from 2.59 at home to 4.07 on the road. I’m also concerned that Kelly’s 4.13 xERA is nearly a run higher than his 3.29 ERA.
I have much more faith in Nola this afternoon, as he’s pitched all 3 of his postseason games at Citizens Bank and owns an outstanding 0.96 ERA in 18.2 innings. Nola has gone at least 5.2 innings in all 3 of those starts and it took him just 82 pitches to navigate through this D-backs lineup in route to a 6.0 inning shutout in Game 2. Nola has been phenomenal at home all season long, owning a 3.29 home ERA compared to a 5.43 ERA on the road. Although the Phillies have their entire bullpen available today, I’m under the assumption that Rob Thomson would like to stay away as long as possible to avoid what happened in both Games 3 and 4. Look for Nola to go at least 6.0 innings before turning to the pen, and look for the Philadelphia Phillies to be back in the World Series for a second straight year.
Check out our Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Merrill Kelly under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
Merrill Kelly held his own in Game 2 and recorded 6 strikeouts in his 5.2 innings of work. While Kelly is more than capable of reaching this number, and his 25.9% strikeout rate is above league average and a personal best for Kelly, this comes down to how long of a leash Torey Lovullo has on him. In 30 starts this season, Kelly has surpassed this number 16 times, but I don’t think he sticks around long enough today to get there. After Game 2, I think Lovullo learned his lesson and won’t keep Kelly in more than two times through the lineup.
Through 5.0 innings and twice through the lineup, Kelly surrendered just 2 earned runs. Heading into the sixth with the top of the order coming up, Lovullo opted to keep Kelly in the game. The result was Kyle Schwarber’s second homer of the game, a walk to Trea Turner, 2 recorded outs of Bryce Harper and Alex Bohm, and then the bench for Kelly. The very next game as rookie Brandon Pfaadt was pitching the game of his life, Lovullo pulled him ahead of his third time against Schwarber even though Pfaddt was yet to allow a run through 5.2 innings and was at just 70 pitches. I think we see a similar approach from Lovullo today which will keep Kelly under 5.5 strikeouts.
Corbin Carroll to record a stolen base (+220)
Corbin Carroll has yet to even attempt swiping second base this NLCS despite spending more than 40 pitches on first base. In a win or go home scenario, there’s absolutely no reason for Carroll to be overly cautious on the basepaths. This is a player that stole 54 bags on 59 attempts this season and ranks in the 99th percentile in sprint speed. I know the Phillies have done a great job of keeping him close, but at some point you have to take a calculated risk and put your team in a position to win. Aaron Nola is likely the best starting pitcher on the Phillies to run on as well, giving up 21 stolen bases on 26 attempts this season. Looking later into the game, if the Phillies opt to use Craig Kimbrel, he’s also a great pitcher to run on. I can’t foresee Carroll not even attempting to steal a base this entire series, and with Arizona’s back up against the wall, look for them to be overly aggressive.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for both games today
