Mark Lammey
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We nearly cashed our Phillies vs Cardinals same game parlay yesterday but fell just short. However, we correctly targeted Philly’s Jean Segura for a hit as he helped his team mount their comeback. Unfortunately, he led the team to too many runs in that incredible 9th inning! Regardless, there were just 2 total runs scored before that last frame, so we had a solid read on the game. Let’s break down Game 2, which will be the last of the 4 Wild Card games going today. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s Wild Card games.
Phillies ML (-120)
Aaron Nola 5+ strikeouts (-205)
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+110)
Parlay odds: +372
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-120) over St. Louis Cardinals
The Phillies needed their epic 9th-inning comeback to take yesterday’s game, but tonight should be less of an emotional rollercoaster for their fans. That’s because they’ll have starter Aaron Nola on the mound, while the Cardinals will be starting Miles Mikolas. They have nearly identical records and ERAs, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Nola is coming off an incredible start against the AL-best Astros, while Mikolas has faced the lowly Pirates and Reds in 3 of his last 5 starts.
Not only did Nola keep a dominant Houston team scoreless and to just 2 hits in 6.2 innings, his expected numbers illustrate he’s had some unlucky bounces this season. Both his 2.67 xERA and .256 xwOBA are top 5 among all qualified pitchers. The same can be said about his walk rate and strikes plus swing-and-miss rate. Meanwhile, Mikolas ranks 70th or worse in 3 of those same 4 categories. The Cardinals also had to call their bullpen into action a full inning earlier than the Phillies, which could certainly play a factor. Philly made yesterday a sweat, but Nola should help make this first leg of our SGP a much smoother experience.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions
Aaron Nola 5+ strikeouts (-205)
Let’s expand on Nola and how he can help us profit even more in Game 2 tonight. First and foremost, it’s true that the Cardinals are not a team to strike out as much as many others, but this alternate total is extremely low in comparison to what Nola’s prop otherwise would be. Phillies starter Zack Wheeler recorded 4 strikeouts yesterday, and his K-rate is not quite as high as Nola’s. He should prove that today with his 10.32 K/9, success against the Cards and his recent performances.
Nola just struck out 9 Astros in his most recent appearance, which capped off a 4-game stretch of at least 8 strikeouts. If you’re looking for a larger sample size, he’s hit this number in 29 of 32 starts this season. That’s an incredible record, and the Cardinals were among those 29. Nola struck out 7 St. Louis batters when he faced them in July. He’s had at least 8 strikeouts against some of the league’s best lineups like the Braves and Dodgers, so he can certainly get to 5 tonight.
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+110)
After Jean Segura came through for our hitting prop yesterday, it’s time to target one of the biggest names in baseball. Bryce Harper is the reigning NL MVP and although he missed significant time this season, he’s still one of the league’s best hitters. He was easily leading the team in total bases prior to his injury, and is still ahead of even Kyle Schwarber with his .514 slugging percentage.
This is also about Harper’s success against Cards starter Mikolas. He’s hitting .400 against him, with a double and home run to give him a .800 slugging percentage. It also helps that the lineup came alive around him yesterday, which will make opposing pitchers hesitate to pitch around him. Regardless, Harper is simply too strong at the plate to have back-to-back slow games.
Don’t miss our MLB parlays for today’s Wild Card action!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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