Mark Lammey
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There was no shortage of storylines in the 2022 MLB season, and both the Phillies and Cardinals were a part of them. Philly fired manager Joe Girardi and ended up going on a tear, even while reigning MVP Bryce Harper was injured. Speaking of MVPs, the Cards have the overwhelming favorite to win it in the NL with Paul Goldschmidt. They also gave St. Louis fans the joy of seeing Albert Pujols become just the 4th player in history to hit 700 home runs. Now, these teams meet up in the Wild Card round, so let’s break down the matchup. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s playoff games.
Phillies ML (-104)
Under 7.5 total runs (-160)
Jean Segura to record a hit (-190)
Parlay odds: +377
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-104) over St. Louis Cardinals
It took until the 3rd-to-last day of the regular season, but the Phillies got here. Although the Cardinals clinched their postseason spot much sooner, that doesn’t tell the full story. They were able to do so because they’re in the NL Central, which is one of the weakest divisions in baseball. Meanwhile, the Phillies are in the NL East along with the powerhouse Braves and Mets. That level of competition should pay dividends in this opening game.
The Phillies and Cards played each other 7 times this season within a 10-day stretch. Philly won 4 of the first 5 games, and within that span were 3 straight shutout wins. That shouldn’t be expected this time around, but it’s clear that the Cards have their work cut out for them. They finally named their starter for the opener, which will be Jose Quintana. St. Louis’ starting rotation is their biggest concern and the former Pirate may be in for a long day; the more appropriate phrase would be a short outing.
The Phillies ended the season as the 4th-best lineup against lefties and already defeated Quintana earlier in the season. All of that without mentioning Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. He was on the mound for 2 of those 3 shutout wins earlier in the season. With that type of track record, it’s hard to bet against Philly in this spot.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions
Under 7.5 total runs (-160)
It can be a tough pill to swallow betting an under with some of the strong bats in these lineups, but again, recent history calls for it. While shutouts should never be an expectation, Wheeler proved that his dominance over the Cards was no fluke. He pitched 7.0 scoreless innings and allowed just 4 hits in what was ultimately a 4-0 win. Just 5 days later, he had the exact same stat line except with 5 hits instead in what ended as a 2-0 win.
The Phillies lineup can be nerve-racking with their ability to hit lefties, but Quintana should at least be able to keep the game to a reasonable number. Keep in mind both pitching staffs will be coming into this game with extra rest as well. Regardless, Quintana’s loss to the Phillies earlier in the season ended with a 4-2 final score. Even the other Phillies win over the Cards was a 1-0 win, and each of the last 2 meetings still ended with 7 or fewer runs. Scoring may pick up as bullpens get more fatigued, but it should be a low-scoring opener.
Don’t miss our Padres vs Mets Same Game Parlay at +360 odds
Jean Segura to record a hit (-190)
The Phillies have the NL home-run leader in Kyle Schwarber with 46 and the reigning NL MVP-winner Bryce Harper in their lineup. However, there’s one guy that really seemed to ignite a spark in this team when he returned. That would be 2nd baseman Jean Segura. He played just 98 games this season so his raw numbers may not jump off the page, but he’s a true slugger. That’s especially true when it comes to lefties. Segura is hitting .301 against them this season with a .495 slugging percentage. Better yet, he specifically enjoys hitting Quintana. It’s not a large sample size, but Segura is 3-for-4 with 2 doubles against him. As long as he doesn’t hit 2 grand slams, we’re safe taking a hitting prop along with going under the total.
Don’t miss our YRFI/NRFI best bets for the upcoming playoff action — we’re on a 7-0 run!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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