Mark Lammey
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The Phillies are continuing their trip out west by heading to San Francisco. After a midweek series in Arizona, they have the Giants for this weekend. They did not get this trip off to the start of that they expected, but bounced back by crushing the Diamondbacks 18-2 in the finale. Meanwhile, the Giants also had a rough midweek series and were swept by the Padres. They’re both still hoping for a wildcard spot, but the Phillies are in a much stronger position. With both teams losing their prior series, let’s break down who should get off to the better start to the weekend. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Phillies ML (-108)
Over 6.5 total runs (-215)
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+115)
Parlay odds: +363
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-108) over San Francisco Giants
Although the Phillies didn’t enjoy the Arizona warmth as much as they would have liked, they should be able to heat themselves up out by the bay. First and foremost, the Giants have been struggling since the all-star break. They began the second half of their season with some tough series against the Dodgers, but they can’t even maintain a .500 record at this point. After they were just swept by the Padres, they’ve now lost 7 straight games. That also puts them now 10.5 games back from a wild-card spot, while the Phillies look to be in a great position for one.
This is also an opportunity for Philly to take advantage of Giants starter Alex Cobb on the mound before they face lefty ace Carlos Rodon later in the series. San Francisco has now lost 6 of his last 7 starts, and their bullpen has sunk all the way to the league’s 8th-worst. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Phillies team that recently welcomed back reigning MVP Bryce Harper. He, Kyle Schwarber and the rest of that lineup should provide enough support for starter Kyle Gibson. He got the no-decision during the only other meeting between these teams this season, but he gave up just 2 runs in his 6.0 innings. That game saw Logan Webb’s best appearance of the season, striking out 10 in 8.0 innings. Cobb poses much less of a threat in that regard, so trust the Phillies to avenge Gibson’s previous performance.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants
Over 6.5 total runs (-215)
We’re going to use a slightly alternate total as it’s helped to cash a few same game parlays in the past. First and foremost, Oracle Park in San Francisco is not a very hitter-friendly stadium. Therefore, we’re going to take the lower number while still maintaining a great payout. The Giants have been inconsistent since the all-star break, but still produced 5, 3 and 4 runs during their most recent series. That was also at home, and all that should be needed as the Phillies should do the majority of the damage.
The Giants have been great for allowing runs. Prior to the Twins series, they were even upset by allowing 6 runs to the Tigers. That’s the league’s lowest-scoring team. They then allowed the Twins to score 8 and 9 runs in 2 of the 3 weekend games. All of that transitioned into the over hitting in 2 of their 3 recent games against the Padres. The Phillies are the 4th-highest scoring team in the NL, a rank they’ve maintained even without Harper. Now that he’s returned they should feast on Cobb. He’s been good for allowing 3 runs in 3 of 5 starts this month, and that’s before the Giants’ terrible bullpen enters the game. They may not put up another 18 runs like they did their last time out, but the Phillies can do their part in this game getting to at least 7 runs.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+115)
Targeting the reigning NL MVP may not be the most out-of-the-box play, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t value. Harper wasted no time proving he was healthy, as he knocked in 2 RBI in his first game back after missing 2 months. He’s come on even stronger recently. He opened up the Diamondbacks series with 2 doubles for 4 total bases, and closed it out with 3 more. That gives him 155 total bases on the year.
That’s not the highest raw number, but his per-game average is better than most of the league leaders. He’s reached that mark in just 70 games. That’s a far better total base per game average than even the other reigning MVP of the American League, Shohei Ohtani. He’d be on pace for another 300 total base season, just as he had last season. Now facing Cobb and a struggling Giants bullpen, there’s no reason to doubt Harper to come through with this prop once again.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+911 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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