Mark Lammey
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The 2022 NLCS is set and it’s the Phillies taking on the Padres, just as every fan expected. Sarcasm aside, very few expected Philly to shock the Braves and even fewer expected the Dodgers to fall to the Padres. Regardless, these underdogs are now just 3 wins away from a World Series appearance. It had been 11 years since the Phillies were in the postseason and the Padres were a massive disappointment last year when missing the playoffs. A lot can change in just one season, so let’s break down how this series should start out. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Padres ML (-126)
Under 7.5 total runs (-164)
Yu Darvish 6+ strikeouts (+104)
Parlay odds: +365
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
San Diego Padres ML (-126) over Philadelphia Phillies
Despite not being divisional opponents, the Phillies and Padres are not complete strangers. They faced each other 7 times this season, with a record slightly in favor of Philly at 4-3. However, all of those games were before the Padres made their huge splash at the trade deadline. They acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals, Brandon Drury from the Reds and closer Josh Hader from the Brewers. All of that is in addition to all-star Manny Machado and an elite starting rotation.
Those new pieces did not provide instant success, but they have been clicking recently. The Dodgers were unquestionably the favorites to win the World Series all season and the Padres seemed to cruise through them in the NLDS. San Diego didn’t waste any time announcing that Yu Darvish would get the start in Game 1. He took down the Mets and Dodgers in each of his postseason starts, and defeated the Phillies earlier this season as well.
Under 7.5 total runs
Both starting pitchers should help this opening game to end in low-scoring fashion. First and foremost, both teams are coming in with plenty of rest. That means all arms are available and fresh, which should lead to some dominant pitching.
That’s been the case for Darvish for quite some time now, as well as Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. They took quite a bit of time to announce him as the starter, but it’s what most Philly fans were hoping for. He kept the Cards scoreless in the Wild Card round and his start against the Braves in the NLDS finished with just 3 total runs. Similarly, his start against the Padres earlier in the season saw just 3 total runs scored. San Diego should be able to produce just enough for the win now that Wheeler will have to deal with Soto and company, but it shouldn’t be enough to light up the scoreboard either.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bet for today!
Yu Darvish 6+ strikeouts (+104)
We’ve discussed how Darvish should help the Padres win this series-opening game, but let’s dive in a little further. Since coming back from paternity leave, he’s been even more incredible than he already was. Darvish had 3 scoreless starts that spanned 21.0 innings in the last month of the season and was a strikeout machine. He’s always done well racking up Ks, and he had between 6 and 9 strikeouts in each of his 6 starts in September.
Better yet, Darvish struck out 9 Phillies in his most recent start against them this season. He’s faced Philly 7 times in his career and has left those starts with at least 7 strikeouts in all of them except for 1. That trend should continue given how prone some of the Phillies top hitters have been at striking out. Leadoff man Kyle Schwarber ended the regular season with the most in the MLB with 200. Similarly, Rhys Hoskins’ 169 strikeouts were the 8th-most in baseball. They alone could account for half of this number and help us on our way to cashing this SGP.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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