Mark Lammey
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The Phillies shocked the baseball world with their comeback win to steal Game 1 from the Astros. They entered the series as +170 favorites, but proved their postseason magic did not subside over the break after the NLCS. Philly became just the 6th team ever to overcome a 5-run deficit and win a World Series game.
However, the Astros have still been dominant throughout these playoffs, and entered last night with a 7-0 postseason record. They get to remain in Houston for Game 2 tonight, so let’s make it a profitable one. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the World Series action.
Astros -1.5 (+155)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (+155)
Parlay odds: +425
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros -1.5 (+155) over Philadelphia Phillies
After last night’s close game, it may seem surprising to take the Astros on the run line. However, it’s helped us cash multiple SGPs this postseason alone, including Game 3 of the ALCS. We needed only 2 legs for that one to cash, so let’s have a repeat performance. That’s what the Astros will be looking for outside of just 2 innings last night. Let’s not forget they got off to a 5-0 lead against the Phillies’ strongest starter, Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler has been solid as well, but Philly did lose his start in the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves by multiple runs. It’s also worth noting that last night’s Astros starter Justin Verlander has never been great in the postseason. He may win the AL Cy Young this season, but his 0-6 record and 6.07 ERA is the worst in MLB postseason history among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
Therefore, we can expect lefty Framber Valdez to hold on to an Astros lead more effectively tonight. He set the MLB record for most quality starts in a row within a season at 25 this year. Valdez also defeated the Phillies at the beginning of this month. Although the Phillies won in the 10th inning last night, the Astros bullpen should not be a concern. It was actually a starter, Luis Garcia, who allowed the game-losing home run. The Astros relief staff remains the best in baseball, and should be able to close out a multi-run win started off by Valdez.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (+155)
Kyle Tucker surged the Astros into their early lead last night, but Yordan Alvarez has been regarded as one of the best hitters in the MLB. If not for missing time with injury, he would have been much more involved in AL MVP conversations. Regardless, it’s his turn to take over and get things started tonight. He doesn’t have a history against Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, but he’s too consistent of a hitter for that to be a concern.
Despite missing nearly 30 games, Alvarez’s 288 total bases were the 7th-most in the AL. It’s safe to say he’s come through for us quite often already at this point. He’s been able to do so by the tune of 29 doubles, 2 triples and 37 home runs. That gives him a ridiculous .613 slugging percentage, which was behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. Alvarez had a .624 slugging percentage at home this season, so expect him to help the Astros bounce back in Houston tonight.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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