Mark Lammey
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With just 2 days left in the regular season, there are a few postseason scenarios that still need to be decided. The Phillies’ upset win over the Astros last night allowed them to clinch the final NL wildcard spot. Therefore, the only things left to determine are the exact seedings. It’s been a rough week for Philly to get that final spot and it ultimately eliminated the Brewers. It’ll be interesting to see how both of these teams approach tonight’s game, but let’s make it a profitable one. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Astros -1.5 (+114)
Over 6.5 total runs (-140)
Jose Altuve to record a hit (-240)
Parlay odds: +310
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros -1.5 (+114) over Philadelphia Phillies
Now that the Phillies have finally clinched their postseason berth, there is a very high chance they rest some key players. They expected to have this wrapped up earlier, but they were swept by the Cubs last week and even lost a game to the Nationals over the weekend. Therefore, this team is exhausted both physically and mentally. There is no need for them to further drain themselves just before the playoffs, especially when they’re taking on the best team in the American League. Not only do the Phillies have the unfortunate task of facing arguably the best team in baseball, they have to do so against their ace on Tuesday.
Justin Verlander is all but a lock to win the AL Cy Young this season as he’s currently listed at -20000 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. While he doesn’t make the Astros that significant of favorites for this game, he should still lead them to their 105th win. Houston has been able to rest players whenever needed ever since they clinched the AL West a few weeks ago. Therefore, they are fresh and had their usual lineup in play last night. Now that lineup gets to face Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. Simply being a lefty puts him at a disadvantage. Houston has been smashing lefties this season and has the 7th-highest OPS against them. With the Phillies likely sitting back and taking a breather tonight, the Astros should build on the AL-best record.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros predictions
Over 6.5 total runs (-140)
Breaking down the total between these teams is rather interesting. The Astros have Verlander on the mound and an elite bullpen. However, the Phillies are the 3rd-most profitable team for overs this season and have a terrible relief staff. Given the Astros aren’t resting anyone and hitting Suarez, the over should be the play. Not only is Houston one of the top lineups against lefties, but it’s also been even more significant recently.
They were middle-of-the-pack in that regard as recently as a month ago, but their current stretch of dominance has catapulted them into the top 10. They’ve also done so by taking on aces like the Rays’ Shane McClanahan twice in a 2-week span. On top of that, the Phillies bullpen gave up 6 runs to the league-worst Nationals over the weekend in what was ultimately a 13-4 loss. Philly can also do their part even if they do rest a player or two. Kyle Schwarber added 2 homers to his NL-leading total of 46 last night and there’s always reigning MVP Bryce Harper. With the postseason around the corner, it’s also unlikely the Astros push Verlander to the limit. Houston’s bullpen is strong, but this total is low enough to be confident in the over.
Interested in Aaron Judge’s chase for the AL home run record? Check out our breakdown of his matchup tonight here!
Jose Altuve to record a hit (-240)
For full disclosure, only the hit prop is available at the time of publishing. We prefer his 2+ total bases prop, which would greatly increase the payout of this same game parlay as well. However, we also wanted to provide our play and information with plenty of time before the first pitch. Therefore, we’ll give our total bases breakdown which of course also supports this hit prop.
Games at this point in the season can be difficult to handicap as not all teams have the same mindset. However, one guy that hasn’t let us down is Jose Altuve. He came through the last time we targeted this prop and he should do so again. Altuve has a great matchup against Suarez right off the bat, as he’s a .325 career hitter against lefties with a .508 slugging percentage. He’s never faced Suarez specifically, but his 276 total bases are the 9th-most in the AL. He’s widely regarded as one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, which is easy to see with his 37 doubles and 28 home runs. What he lacks in height he more than makes up for in consistency. He’s been able to rest whenever needed over these last few weeks and should be primed to build some momentum going into the postseason.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we’re 4-0 the past 2 days!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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