Mark Lammey
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We cashed our Game 1 Phillies vs Cardinals Same Game Parlay in the Wild Card round, so let’s hit Game 1 of the NLDS as well. These AL East rivals are all too familiar with each other which should make this a great series. While the Phillies were worried about making it to this round, the Braves were resting and locking up rookie starter Spencer Strider for the next 6 years. He won’t be on the mound for this opener, so let’s break down who will be and how it should make tonight’s game play out. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Braves -1.5 (+115)
Over 6.5 total runs (-155)
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+125)
Parlay odds: +450
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+115) over Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves have made it to this round of the playoffs for 5 straight seasons now and are rightfully the favorites in this matchup. They’ve only met the Phillies in the postseason 1 other time back in 1993, but of course, they play each other plenty of times in the regular season. The Braves took the most recent 2 games and swept them the last time they played in Atlanta. The opener of that series was against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who will be on the mound today.
The lefty is put in a tough spot right off the bat, as the Braves are the 3rd-best lineup against lefties this season. They put that on display against Suarez in that aforementioned win, as they took him and the Phillies down by a final score of 7-2. That was the 3rd time Philly fell to the Braves by multiple runs behind a Suarez start. Atlanta is making it a battle of lefties with ace Max Fried getting the start. He’s on extended rest as he hasn’t pitched since the last day of September. He’s got a great matchup today as he has typically performed well against some of the Phillies’ top hitters. Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .167 against him. With the way the Braves built their momentum to round out the regular season, they should come out strong to begin this series.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 predictions
Over 6.5 total runs (-155)
Outside of Fried’s matchups against a couple of Phillies hitters, just about everything points to an over in this situation. This game originally opened at this number before ticking up to 7 total runs. Regardless, the Phillies pitching staff is not going to be nearly as fresh having played in the Wild Card round and the Braves have already proven that they can smash lefties. There were 9 runs scored when they faced Suarez just 3 weeks ago.
Similarly and perhaps surprisingly, Fried has also had high-scoring games against the Phillies. Two of his starts against them ended with 11 and 10 total runs, and Philadelphia is nearly as strong against lefties as the Braves. They’re just 1 spot behind them in terms of team OPS against lefties; Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto specifically should help them produce. Atlanta still has the deeper lineup that can outpace the Phillies, but both teams should contribute to the total today.
Also check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today — we’re on a 9-3 run!
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+125)
Let’s round things out with the primary hitter that has led the Braves to being such a potent lineup against lefties. First and foremost, Riley ended the regular season with the most total bases in the NL. He was the first hitter to reach 25 doubles and 25 homers, and then again for 35 doubles and 35 homers. Suarez is likely in for a rough day because of Riley.
He’s hitting .329 with a ridiculous .671 slugging percentage against lefties this season. Better yet, he has owned Suarez specifically. Riley has a .417 average and .583 slugging percentage against him, including 2 extra-base hits. Even if he doesn’t hit this prop against Suarez early on, he’s hitting .351 against the Phillies overall this season. That shouldn’t be too surprising given their inconsistent bullpen. No matter when he gets it done, Riley should cash this prop to finish off our SGP.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for today’s playoff action (+1081 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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