Mark Lammey
Show Bio
The Phillies and Braves opened up their 2nd-ever playoff series against one another in quite surprising fashion yesterday. Philly was able to pull off the upset over ace Max Fried and Atlanta. The Braves nearly pulled off the comeback with 3 runs in the 9th inning but fell just short. Game 2 will be another afternoon game, so let’s break it down to get the evening started out strong. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Braves ML (-135)
Over 6.5 total runs (-150)
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+140)
Parlay odds: +400
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Atlanta Braves ML (-135) over Philadelphia Phillies
One of the most difficult things to do in sports betting is to forget the last game you saw. There’s a reason the MLB plays 162 games a season and phrases like “any given Sunday” exist in the NFL. Anyone can beat anyone and the Braves losing yesterday does not diminish how great a team they are. Even the league-best Dodgers lost 3 straight games to the league-worst Nationals this season. With that in mind, expect a big bounce-back game from the Braves today.
There’s certainly something to be said about how having so much time off hindered them, after the momentum they had when stealing the NL East crown from the New York Mets. Regardless, yesterday should have served as a wake-up call for the Braves and starter Kyle Wright. He was the only pitcher to eclipse 20 wins this season, and only Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander had 18 wins. After seeing both Fried and Verlander struggle yesterday, Wright should be locked in. He’s going to have to out-duel Phillies starter Zack Wheeler. He looked strong against the Cardinals, but the Braves’ lineup should still never be doubted. They nearly erased the deficit Fried put them in yesterday and shouldn’t have to do that again today.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Game 2 predictions
Over 6.5 total runs (-150)
It’s clear that we had the correct read on the total yesterday and the same should hold true today. Wright may have the most wins in the majors, but that doesn’t mean he has the lowest ERA. He’s still prone to allow a run or 2, which should be all that is needed from the Phillies today. His most recent start against Philadelphia was a 6-3 win and Fried did the Braves bullpen no favors yesterday.
Similarly, the Phillies bullpen has been prone to blowing leads all season. They nearly did it in the 9th inning alone yesterday and Atlanta can continue to exploit that. Both teams nearly covered this total individually yesterday and it makes sense as to why. The Braves and Phillies scored the 3rd and 7th-most runs, respectively, in the MLB this season. Atlanta has the 2nd-best team OPS and the hitting conditions look to be the same as yesterday afternoon’s game. Their final 3 regular-season meetings ended with 10, 9 and 15 runs, so expect plenty more action again today.
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+140)
We’ve never fully ran it back when it comes to our Same Game Parlays, so hesitation is understood. However, as previously stated, it’s important not to base everything on just the most recent game. Riley has been broken down quite often this season, but that’s because he’s been so profitable for us.
Everything remains true in terms of leading the entire NL in total bases and feasting on the Phillies overall this season. Just as the Braves should have a bounce-back day, so should Riley. Matt Olson homered yesterday, and now it’s Riley’s turn. He had 38 homers to go along with his 39 doubles this season, so this prop could hit as early as the 1st inning. Riley has simply been too consistent this season for him to have back-to-back hitless performances.
Also check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
