Caleb Wilfinger
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This special edition of Wednesday Night Baseball on ESPN should be a fun one. This is the second game of a 3-game series between the New York Mets and New York Yankees in a massive series for bragging rights in the Big Apple. After hitting a +1039 Yankees vs Mets Same Game Parlay last night, let’s see if we can make it 2 in a row!
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this Subway Series matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Yankees -1.5 (+145)
Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (-112)
Tommy Pham to record a hit (-140)
Same Game Parlay odds: +729
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That appears to be the case here, as Tommy Pham picking up a hit for the Mets doesn’t go with a Yankees -1.5 bet on paper.
New York Yankees -1.5 over New York Mets (+145)
The Yankees won the opener of this series by a score of 7-6 in dramatic fashion on Tuesday. Giancarlo Stanton hit a key homer and that was a welcome sign for Yankees fans as they wait for Aaron Judge to return from an injury he sustained earlier this month. D.J. LeMahieu went deep as well and he is another bat that has stepped up in Judge’s absence. The Yankees’ lineup has been more than treading water as they look to get healthy, but the Bronx Bombers are in good shape with Gerrit Cole on the mound in this one.
Cole’s peripherals are excellent this season and he’ll have the edge over Justin Verlander, who began the season on the injured list and has not shown Mets fans what was expected of him so far. The hosts really need a strong outing from Verlander to right the ship, especially with their offense struggling the way it has, but I’ll gladly take the Yankees on the run line at this enticing number.
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Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (-112)
While his advanced metrics have been inconsistent on the season, Gerrit Cole is still getting results and helping the Yankees win in the majority of his starts. The ace in the Bronx holds a 2.84 ERA and has 7 starts where he’s allowed 2 runs or fewer in his last 10 outings. Cole’s most consistent stat in quality starts or weaker efforts is his strikeouts, and that’s been the case for the majority of his career as an ace.
With 90 punch-outs over 85 innings pitched on the season, Cole is good for just over 1 strikeout per inning. At that pace, he should be able to finish with at least 7 Ks on Wednesday against a Mets team without their best hitter in the lineup in Pete Alonso. This is at least somewhat correlated with a Yankees victory, so I’ll back Cole to have his best stuff in this one.
Tommy Pham to record a hit (-140)
Tommy Pham seems like an unlikely choice to record a hit in a matchup featuring plenty of star power. However, Pham has actually held terrific career numbers against Gerrit Cole, which is in stark contrast to the rest of the Mets lineup. In fact, over 33 plate appearances, Pham holds a .333 batting average against the Yankees ace, along with 2 home runs and a .576 slugging percentage. Additionally, Pham has recorded at least one hit in 6 of his last 8 games, so I think we’re getting some value on this number. In a game where I see the Mets struggling to score against an in-form pitcher, I’ll back Pham to stay hot at the dish against a starter he enjoys facing.
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