The Yankees and Red Sox got to enjoy Monday Night Football since rain caused their series opener to be postponed to Tuesday. That means we have 2 games being played at Fenway today, with the first game starting at 1:35 PM and the second beginning at 7:10 PM. I’ve crafted a Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 4/1 odds for Game 1, so check it out, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Tuesday.
Red Sox ML (-136)
Aaron Judge 3+ Total Bases (+140)
Same Game Parlay odds: +425
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Boston Red Sox ML (-136) over New York Yankees
The Red Sox and Yankees have found themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs this season. While the Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays are all gearing up for a postseason run, the Yankees and Red Sox are in a dogfight for which team finishes in last place. It’s very possible that whoever loses this series will finish 5th in the AL East, so although these teams aren’t playing for playoffs, they are playing for their pride. But rain forced the series opener to be delayed, which means we get 2 games instead of 1 today, and this Same Game Parlay focuses on the first matchup. Nick Pivetta and Randy Vasquez are set to square off, and I see an immediate advantage for the home team.
Vasquez’s stats may look good on paper, but they are slightly misleading. His 2.36 ERA is fabulous until you see his 5.51 xERA with a walk rate above 10%. He has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen this season but has been forced back into the starting role with Luis Severino being shut down for the rest of the season. The problem with Vasquez is he tries to paint corners and doesn’t seem fazed if he starts to walk hitters, but that’s when he gets into trouble. Vasquez also struggles to get whiffs, so he relies on soft contact which is something the Red Sox offense doesn’t do a lot of. Pivetta is the far better pitcher in this matchup, so I have to give the edge to Boston in front of their home crowd.
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Aaron Judge 3+ Total Bases (+140)
When you know what you’re looking for, hitting Nick Pivetta can be easier than you think. The Canadien relies on 3 pitches – his fastball, 12-6 curve and slider. Pivetta is at his best when he slows you down with several curveballs and then throws a high fastball that seems like 100 MPH. However, Pivetta has had trouble locating his fastball, which sometimes can leak out into the middle of the plate. When that happens, he gets rocked. In his last 7.2 innings, Pivetta has allowed 3 home runs and several doubles. I’m expecting Aaron Judge to continue that trend tonight.
The Yankees captain has had a shorter season than most due to his toe injury, but now that he’s back, he has to make the most of the time. That starts by leading New York to a series win against the Red Sox. Judge has faced Pivetta 20 times in his career and is 5-for-15 with 2 home runs and 5 walks. He’s also struck out only 3 times and has a whiff rate of just 20.6%, so he’s been seeing the ball well out of Pivetta’s hand. Whether he does it in one swing or several, I’m expecting a big day from Judge at the plate.
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