Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP previews the Yankees vs Orioles game at Camden Yards with a decent potential payout at +554 odds. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Yankees vs Orioles Same Game Parlay.
Over 8.5 total runs (-122)
Luis Severino under 4.5 strikeouts (+108)
Aaron Judge to record an RBI (+135)
Yankees vs Orioles Same Game Parlay: +554
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Over 8.5 total runs (-122)
The Yankees and Orioles combined for 11 runs yesterday and the return of Aaron Judge has added an obvious boost to a Yankees’ lineup in need of a pick-me-up. In his second game back, Judge went 3-for-5 with a home run and 2 runs driven in. As a team, the Yankees finished with 12 hits and 18 total baserunners, and I believe they’re in store for another productive night at the plate. Dean Kremer takes the mound for the Orioles and posts a 4.59 ERA through 21 starts on the season. While Kremer’s ERA is not terrible, he owns a 5.39 xERA and a 44.1% hard-hit rate. July has been his best month of the season, but in 2 outings against the Yankees this year, Kremer has allowed 5 earned runs on a combined 9 runs and 4 walks across 12.0 innings. His last start against the Yankees was without Judge in the lineup.
For the Yankees, Luis Severino takes the ball for his 12th start of the season as he hopes to make some progress in what has been a difficult year. Severino has a career-high 6.46 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .314 opposing batting average. July has been horrendous for Severino and across 18.1 innings, he’s allowed 18 earned runs on 33 hits, 7 walks and just 13 strikeouts. Severino’s worst start of the season came earlier in the month against the Orioles when he surrendered 7 earned runs on 10 hits while failing to make it out of the 3rd inning. Severino’s biggest struggle however has been his inability to keep baseballs in the park. In 11 outings, Severino has already given up 14 home runs and that should help us out on the over.
Luis Severino under 4.5 strikeouts (+108)
Luis Severino is having a difficult year in the pinstripes. Not only is his ERA north of 6 runs while allowing 14 home runs in 11 outings, but his strikeout rate is by far the lowest of his career. In prior seasons, Severino’s strikeout ability has been his saving grace, but for whatever reason he just can’t seem to put batters away in 2023. Between 2017 and 2022, Severino’s strikeout rate has been at least 27.7%, with his best mark coming in at 36.4% in 2021. This season, Severino’s strikeout rate is a career-low 17.6%, and his single-game high for strikeouts this season is only 6.
Severino hasn’t recorded more than 4 strikeouts in 6 of his 11 starts and in 4 of his last 5 outings. Severino also hasn’t given himself the opportunity to rack up strikeouts given his inability to work deep into games. Severino is averaging less than 5 innings per start, and he couldn’t even make it a full 3.0 innings against Baltimore earlier this month. I expect plenty of contact from the Orioles, similar to their last matchup against Sevy.
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Aaron Judge to record an RBI (+135)
Yankees fans are hoping that Aaron Judge can save New York’s season, and last night’s performance provided a glimpse of how valuable he is. Judge finished the game 3-for-5 with a home run and 2 RBI’s and has great numbers against Dean Kremer. In 10 at-bats, Judge is 4-for-10 with 3 home runs and 4 runs driven in. Before Judge was placed on the injured list on June 7 with a right toe sprain, he was having another MVP caliber year. Through 49 games, Judge had a .291/.404/.674 slash line with 19 home runs and 40 RBI’s.
Even with nearly 2 months on the injured list, Judge doesn’t appear to have missed a beat. He has great numbers against Kremer, who owns a .277 xBA, .490 xSLG, and 9.8%-barrel rate. Given Judge’s history against Kremer and the fact he’s driven at least 1 run in 13 of his last 21 games, I like the odds today for him to do further damage. Fade Kremer and back Judge to stay hot at the plate after a great game last night.
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