Mark Lammey
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After what felt like forever, the stage of the ALCS is finally set. The Yankees needed all 5 games to take down the Cleveland Guardians and even had 2 weather postponements along the way. Meanwhile, the Astros were able to sweep the Mariners and have been resting ever since. There’s certainly the argument that New York will be coming into this series with some momentum, but Houston handled them with ease in the regular season. Now that they’re playing a series that means so much more, let’s break down how Game 1 should play out. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Astros ML (-195)
Under 7.5 total runs (-160)
Jose Altuve 2+ total bases (+175)
Parlay odds: +575
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros ML (-195) over New York Yankees
A rested Astros team should be able to get this series started out with a win at home. The Yankees aren’t being provided any time off between their win yesterday and having to travel down to Houston. While the Astros played 18 innings the last time they were on the field, that was 4 days ago. They’ve had ample time to recover and should be able to replicate their dominance over the Yankees.
Houston handled New York with ease during the regular season, and that was when the Bronx Bombers were living up to their nickname. The Astros won 5 of their 7 meetings, including all 3 that were in Houston. They did so in convincing fashion, as the Yankees led for just 2 of their 64 innings played. Not only did the recent extra time off allow the team as whole to rest, it also allows the ‘Stros to start ace Justin Verlander in this opening game. He was dominant in a 3-1 win over New York earlier in the year, and the Yanks aren’t getting ace Gerrit Cole back for this matchup. They’ll be starting Jameson Taillon, who they didn’t even want starting their winner-take-all Game 5 yesterday. That speaks to the confidence the team has in him, and should provide us with confidence about the Astros winning this game tonight.
Be sure to check out our New York Yankees vs Houston Astros predictions
Under 7.5 total runs (-160)
Low-scoring wins have been a theme for the Astros, and should continue with Verlander on the mound. He was the leader in the Astros having the best overall pitching staff this season, along with the best bullpen in the MLB coming in to relieve their incredible starting rotation. Verlander looks set to win the AL Cy Young and his performance against the Yankees was a helpful step in winning that award.
He shut them down in a 3-1 win, and even New York’s biggest name hit terribly against Houston in their regular-season meetings. Aaron Judge may look to be a lock for the AL MVP, but his performances against the Astros certainly didn’t add to his resume. He hit an abysmal .148 against them across 27 plate appearances. Judge hasn’t been particularly great in the postseason, so Astros fans should feel confident in that regard. While Houston can do enough damage against Taillon for the win, it’s unlikely it will be massive numbers. Four of the 5 wins the Astros recorded against the Yankees earlier this year ended with 5 or fewer runs, so expect another low-scoring win for the home team.
Jose Altuve 2+ total bases (+175)
This is listed at +175 at DraftKings at time of publishing, but it is just -105 at FanDuel. Should that be corrected, the SGP odds are still +416 over at FanDuel, and it was going to be our play regardless.
Jose Altuve is a go-to guy when it comes to showing up in the clutch, He has an incredible 23 home runs in his career, which is just part of the reason he’s considered one of the best and most consistent leadoff men to play the game. Despite missing 21 games in the regular season, his 281 total bases were the 9th-most in the AL, and his .533 slugging percentage was far better than many above him in total bases. We’re also targeting Altuve due to his success against Taillon. He’s a .444 hitter against him, including 2 doubles. Better yet, he’s also the Astros’ best hitter at home this season, with a .328 average and .566 slugging percentage. Whether he takes care of this with a single swing in the 1st inning or with multiple hits throughout the game, expect Altuve to continue to come up clutch.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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