Mark Lammey
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We cashed a best bet on the Astros money line last night and correctly predicted the total, so let’s piece it all together for an SGP tonight! Houston came into this series as the favorite and did not disappoint in Game 1. It wasn’t a blowout necessarily, but the Astros have now won 6 of their 8 meetings with the Yankees this season. New York was even riding the high of its Game 5 win over Cleveland, but a rested Astros team proved to be too much. With the Yanks now having settled down a bit, let’s see if that’s enough for them to pull off an upset in Game 2.
Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Astros ML (-160)
Under 7.5 total runs (-145)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (+115)
Parlay odds: +475
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros ML (-160) over New York Yankees
It may not be flashy and it may not be the exciting pick, but there is no reason to doubt the Astros at this point. The series remains in Houston for Game 2, where the Astros are 3-0 in the postseason and went 55-26 in the regular season. It’s also where they swept the Yankees earlier this season, and they’ll have Framber Valdez on the mound tonight. If New Yorkers were relieved that ace Justin Verlander wouldn’t be pitching again, Valdez is not much of a drop-off.
It was Valdez that set the single-record for the most consecutive quality starts with 25 in a row this year. That means pitching at least 6.0 innings while allowing 3 or fewer earned runs. Now he gets a Yankees team that just struck out a ridiculous 17 times last night. The Bronx Bombers seemingly cannot produce any runs unless it’s by the longball and Aaron Judge hit .148 against the ‘Stros in the regular season, and went 0-for-4 last night. That’s not a recipe for success for Yankees starter Luis Severino. He missed over 2 months due to injury this season and New York lost his only start this postseason against the Guardians. With the Astros being a much stronger team than the Guardians, expect a 2-0 lead for the home team by tonight’s end.
Be sure to check out our New York Yankees vs Houston Astros predictions
Under 7.5 total runs (-145)
Last night continued the low-scoring trend between these teams, and just like the side prediction, there is no reason to doubt it tonight. All but 1 of the Astros wins over the Yankees in the regular season finished with 5 or fewer runs, and last night had just 6. We have already discussed Judge’s struggles against the Houston pitching staff, and that should continue with how well Valdez has pitched this season.
His start against the Yankees was within his record-setting 25-game streak of quality starts, and Severino even did his part when pitching against the Astros this season. He actually made back-to-back starts against Houston, both of which were about as low-scoring as it gets. New York lost both of his starts, and they finished with final scores of 3-1 and 2-1. That was within a month with 2 other Severino starts that were 3-0 and 2-1 games. Such low-scoring trends make sense with both of these teams boasting 2 of the best bullpens in baseball. With more and more pressure mounting as the series goes along, expect some uptight hitters and another low-scoring affair.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (+115)
If there is one hitter in this series that doesn’t tense up in the biggest moments, it’s Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez. He is considered one of the best hitters in the MLB and would have given Judge a run for his money for the AL MVP had he been healthy all season. Ironically enough, the first game following his first time on the injured list was against the Yankees and he hit a homer in his first at-bat.
It wasn’t against Severino, but Alvarez has proven to be matchup-proof at this point. Alvarez was also the one who hit the walk-off 3-run homer in Game 1 against the Mariners. All he did the following game was hit the go-ahead homer to win Game 2. He is an absolute machine, and for him to have back-to-back hitless nights is quite a rarity. Despite missing nearly 30 games, Alvarez’s 288 total bases were still the 7th-most in the AL. With that type of efficiency, expect him to lead Houston to another win tonight.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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