Mark Lammey
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The Yankees and Guardians are all knotted at 1-1 after Cleveland took Game 2 in extra innings yesterday. Due to the rain postponement on Thursday night, there is now no rest day between Games 2 and 3. There generally is with the location change, but that luxury won’t be given as these teams head to Progressive Field in Cleveland for what is now a best-of-3 series. It feels as though we may go the distance in this ALDS, so let’s break down how Game 3 should play out. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Yankees ML (-120)
Under 7.5 total runs (-165)
Triston McKenzie 5+ strikeouts (-245)
Parlay odds: +320
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
New York Yankees ML (-120) over Cleveland Guardians
Despite being on the road, the Yankees are still slight favorites tonight. Both teams are likely exhausted from their extra-inning game yesterday and we believe New York has a great opportunity to bounce back. They’ll be going with starter Luis Severino tonight, who should be as fresh as it gets. He doesn’t have nearly as much wear and tear on his arms after missing about a month and a half, but he’s proven he’s healthy and as strong as ever.
He’ll be entering this game with 12 days of rest and his last start was an impressive one. He had a no-hitter going into the 8th inning before he was pulled in order to keep him ready for moments like these. It’s clear he won’t be on any sort of pitch count, which is great news with the length of yesterday’s game. Admittedly, Guardians starter Triston McKenzie has been solid in his own right. However, so had Shane Bieber and the Yankees got to him in the 1st inning. Although they didn’t end up winning the game, McKenzie can have some slip-ups as well. Cleveland also had to use closer Emmanuel Clase for 2.1 innings yesterday and with how close these games have been, that could prove costly.
Be sure to check out our New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians predictions
Under 7.5 total runs (-165)
Taking an under just a day after an extra-inning game can cause some hesitation, but let’s break it down. First and foremost, the first 2 games of this series have easily stayed under the total and the starters on the mound have been great for unders. Severino’s recent near-no-hitter ended with just 4 total runs and McKenzie’s start against the Yankees earlier this season saw just 2 runs scored.
That trend should continue based on how deep into games those guys can pitch. Severino could have thrown a complete game last time out had New York not wanted to preserve him, and he’s nearly always good for at least 6-7 innings. Similarly, McKenzie is a workhorse and has several starts lasting 8.0 innings this season. It should also help both pitching staffs that they’re heading to a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark. Lastly, although the Guardians overused Clase, top reliever James Karinchak pitched just 2 outs and should help keep this game low-scoring.
Triston McKenzie 5+ strikeouts (-245)
That’s right, we’re targeting the Guardians starter for strikeouts even though we believe the Yankees can win the game. Sometimes a bit of a sweat is required to hit a Same Game Parlay and this series has already proven there are going to be some close calls. New York can win this game but it may come down to the wire because of McKenzie. We’re also targeting him rather than Severino because the Guardians strikeout the least of any team in the MLB.
Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers got rung up the 6th-most times in the AL and McKenzie is known for exactly that. He struck out 7 Yankees when he faced them earlier in the season, and that was just half of what he’s capable of. McKenzie mowed down the White Sox 14 and 13 times in separate starts this season. He also rang up 8 Rays batters in the Wild Card series; his AL East K-rate can transition into tonight.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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