Mark Lammey
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We cashed our Guardians/Twins and Giants/Cubs same game parlays over the weekend, so let’s get back to it after a day away from these plays. As the season begins to wind down, everything gets more tense. Of course that includes the classic rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox. MLB schedule-makers always hope they’ll be battling for the division lead at this point in the season. While that isn’t the case this year, that doesn’t make this series any less meaningful to these teams.
They will always be out to dominate one another, and this game will be no different. With a well-known pitching matchup and still plenty on the line, let’s break down how we can make this series opener profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Yankees -1.5 (-102)
Over 7.5 total runs (-164)
Giancarlo Stanton 2+ total bases (-105)
Parlay odds: +346
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
New York Yankees -1.5 (-102) over Boston Red Sox
Despite these teams having significantly different records, the season series between them is nearly dead even. The Yankees have a slight 7-6 edge over the Red Sox, and can extend that lead behind ace Gerrit Cole. Had this game been about a month ago, the Yanks would be even greater favorites. Although they haven’t been quite as dominant overall, Cole has been strong. The Sox have given him some trouble in the past, but he’s led the team to wins in all 3 of his starts against them this season. That’s helped him improve to 7-3 in his career against the Sox.
Meanwhile, Boston starter Nick Pivetta has been very shaky this season. The last time he faced the Yankees was a crushing 14-1 loss in which he allowed 7 runs in 4.1 innings. If that didn’t sound bad enough, he’s 0-3 overall against New York. Obviously, the starters don’t control the entire game. However, the relief pitching advantage is even more of a mismatch. The Yankees have been elite in that regard all season, and are behind only the Astros for the best bullpen ERA in the league. On the flip side, that’s been the Sox biggest weakness, as they now have the 6th-worst bullpen. New York has also been living up to the Bronx Bombers nickname, and have the 2nd-highest OPS in the American League. They just dominated another AL East opponent in the Rays their last time on the field, and can do the same tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Over 7.5 total runs (-164)
The Yankees lead the league in home runs with 221. AL MVP-favorite Aaron Judge plays a massive role in that, as his 55 leads the league by 18. He’s still on pace to set the AL record, and should get some help from Pivetta tonight. Not only is Pivetta 0-3 against the Yankees, he has an abysmal 9.67 ERA against them. New York also has Giancarlo Stanton healthy to help take advantage of that.
While the Red Sox bullpen has been their Achilles heel, their lineup has been quite the opposite. It’s most of the reason they have as many wins as they do. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts leads the AL with a .319 batting average, and they have several hitters among the AL leaders in doubles. Some of the matchups between these teams this season have been extremely high-scoring. The Yankees have won games by scores of 12-5, 14-1 and 13-2. With the Sox also putting up 11 runs against New York this year, expect a high-scoring season opener.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Giancarlo Stanton 2+ total bases (-105)
Let’s cap things off with a player prop. Sometimes it’s worth targeting a player from the opposite team of the team we’re projecting to win to boost the payout. However, there isn’t much value this time around. Bogaerts is just .194 against Cole, and Rafael Devers is hitting just .200 against him. Therefore, we’re going to stay on brand and go with Stanton. Feel free to go with Judge as well, but we’re going to pivot away from the most obvious choice for a few reasons.
Firstly, Stanton’s .303 average against the Sox this season is superior to Judge’s .277 average. Similarly, Stanton is hitting .455 with a 1.091 slugging percentage against Pivetta. Judge isn’t far behind with his .375 average, but the concern with him is walks. Pitchers are starting to avoid him more recently, and he’s walked 4 times against Pivetta already. Therefore, Stanton should simply have more opportunities than Judge. Even if he doesn’t take advantage of Pivetta, the Sox terrible bullpen should allow him to hit this prop and finish off our same game parlay.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1073 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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