Mark Lammey
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It’s only fitting for the featured game on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball to be such a great rivalry. It’s arguably the best in any sport, and these teams never seem to disappoint. The Yankees are out to find their groove again and get out of their recent slump. They’re still a comfortable 10.5 games up on any other AL East team, but haven’t been quite as dominant.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are simply trying to salvage their season as they’ve been sitting at the bottom of the division. While these teams may end up in different places come postseason time, they always find a way to make these matchups interesting. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Yankees – 1st 5 innings ML/ML (+140)
Anthony Rizzo 2+ total bases (+115)
Parlay odds: +320
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
New York Yankees – 1st 5 innings ML/ML (+140)
To clarify, this is a joint prop on DraftKings of the Yankees to be leading after 5 innings and to win the game. I still wanted to break things down for both the 1st half of the game and the overall money line for full analysis. The Yankees’ job certainly isn’t done after last night’s win as they still want to win this series. The Red Sox walk-off on Friday night has this series currently split. However, the Yankees’ most dominating stretch came during their last series against the Red Sox. They defeated them in back-to-back games by a combined score of 27-3, largely by getting off to fast starts. New York was leading 8-1 and 11-2 by the end of 5 innings in those games. They made sure not to leave any doubt, and should get off to a similar start tonight.
They may not rack up another 11 quick runs, but the Yankees have one of today’s best matchups against the opposing starting pitcher. Sox starter Michael Wacha will be featured tonight for his first start since June. If that wasn’t concerning enough for Boston, he has not had a successful time against New York. The Yankees are hitting .346 against him with a .915 OPS. That’s not based on a small sample size either: he’s faced 107 Bronx Bomber at-bats. Wacha’s last time out also provides confidence in this play. He allowed 3 1st-inning runs, and was losing 5-2 by the end of 5 innings. New York should get the fireworks started early in primetime tonight.
New York Yankees – 1st 5 innings ML/ML (+140) continued
Let’s continue breaking things down beyond the 1st half of the game. The Yankees should have no problem building their lead early, and transitioning that into a convincing win. Those wins mentioned earlier did just that, with finals of 14-1 and 13-2. They’ve also taken a dominating 12-5 win over the Sox this season. Since those victories, Boston’s bullpen has been absolutely awful. That’s why this play works in perfect conjunction with the 1st 5 innings.
The lead should grow against a set of Sox relievers who are ranked as the 6th-worst in the league. They were once a top-10 bullpen, and the Yankees have been a large part of their demise. Their rapid decline has been on full display since the all-star break, such as losing a game 13-5 to the lowly Royals. Meanwhile, the Yankees bullpen has held the #2 spot for much of the last few months. Even throughout their recent slump, that was an aspect that never seemed to diminish. With the Yankees having the advantage to both start the game and in the later innings, expect them to be leading throughout.
Anthony Rizzo 2+ total bases (+115)
Aaron Judge generates the majority of the attention, and deservedly so, for the Yankees. Getting through a same game parlay without mentioning the AL MVP favorite is a struggle in itself. Regardless, we are going to get much better value with the hitter directly behind him in the lineup. There are several reasons to target Rizzo with this play. Firstly, seeing Judge walk twice last night creates concern for pitchers beginning to pitch around him and his league-leading 46 home runs. That only generates more opportunity for Rizzo, who doesn’t even need the extra help.
He has the 7th-most home runs this season, and just doubled to drive in Judge in the series opener. That was only part of his 180 total bases this season. That’s all without mentioning the specific matchup against Wacha. Rizzo is a primary factor for the Yankees’ success against the Sox starter, as he’s 21-for-47 against him, with an incredible .681 slugging percentage. There’s no denying Judge is dominant overall, but he is actually 0-for-11 against Wacha. That’s unlikely to last for long, but let’s roll with Rizzo having so much success with such a large sample size.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for today’s action (+1052 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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