Caleb Wilfinger
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With the New York Mets in desperate need of a win to right the ship, this NL East showdown on FS1 should be a fun one. This is the second game of a 3-game set between the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies in a massive series in the NL East. After hitting a +717 MLB mega parlay last night, let’s see if I can make it 2 parlay winners in a row!
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Mets -1.5 (+128)
Under 9.2 (-122)
Alec Bohm to record a hit (-200)
Same Game Parlay odds: +767
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That appears to be the case here, as Alec Bohm picking up a hit for the Phillies doesn’t go with a Mets -1.5 bet on paper.
New York Mets -1.5 (+128) over Philadelphia Phillies
Both of these teams have been major disappointments this season, at least until recently. The Phillies — who had spent the entire season under .500 — are red-hot lately, winning 14 of their last 18 games to hold a 39-36 record. With that being said, I think this game favors the Mets, especially given the disparity in the starting pitching. The Mets are starting Max Scherzer while the Phillies are giving Cristopher Sanchez another shot.
Sanchez is a journeyman and mostly a bullpen arm by trade, so his solid 4 scoreless innings of work was unexpected in his first start last week, even against the lowly A’s. Scherzer is coming off a terrific outing against the Astros and just turned in a 7-inning, 1 earned-run performance while striking out 9 against the Phillies. The Mets should win this one comfortably.
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Under 9.5 (-122)
I might feel differently about this game in different conditions, but as it stands, I am taking the under in Saturday’s matchup. There is a ton of rain in the forecast in Philadelphia this afternoon, and if it goes ahead it will likely be in wet conditions. That usually means bad news for hitters, and that doesn’t account for how poor the Mets offense has looked in general this season. Furthermore, Scherzer spun 7 innings of 1-run ball against the Phillies earlier this month, and I think he can repeat that kind of performance on Saturday. I’ll take my chances with the under in what could turn into a slop fest in Philadelphia.
Alec Bohn to record a hit (-200)
While I don’t see the Phillies having a ton of success at the plate in this game, there is one prominent hitter in the lineup who has seen success against Scherzer. Alec Bohm has registered a hit in 7 of his last 10 starts, and I expect him to get the start today. Bohm’s career numbers off the Hall of Famer are solid, as he’s hitting .316 in 19 plate appearances. This is enough of a sample size for me to back to the well with Bohm as a third leg of our SGP. In a game where I see the Phillies struggling to score against an in-form pitcher, I’ll back Bohm to stay hot at the dish against a starter he enjoys facing.
You can also check out today’s MLB mega parlay, YRFI/NRFI Best Bets and our College Baseball World Series predictions
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