Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. Now we’ve added Same Game Parlays to the mix, and tonight brings us to Philadelphia for an NL East rivalry between the Phillies and the visiting New York Mets. First pitch is at 7:05 pm and can be streamed on Apple TV+.
This Same Game Parlay projects a low scoring game, with contributions from Kodai Senga and Tommy Pham. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for today’s slate. Without further ado, here’s tonight’s Same Game Parlay between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Under 9.5 total runs (-115)
Kodai Senga over 6.5 strikeouts (+112)
Tommy Pham to record 2+ total bases (+130)
Mets vs Phillies Same Game Parlay odds: +846
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Under 9.5 total runs (-115)
When the Phillies and Mets last played in Queens, it resulted in a 3-game sweep of the Phillies with a total of 13 runs scored between both ballclubs. This weekend, they’ll play a 3-game series in Philadelphia (weather permitting) and I’m expecting some low scoring affairs this time around as well. Kodai Senga takes the mound for New York and the best outing of his MLB career thus far has come against Philadelphia. On May 30, Senga tossed 7.0 shutout innings and allowed just 1 baserunner on a Kody Clemens single in the 3rd inning. Overall, Senga is having a solid year with the Mets, owning a 3.53 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate that ranks in the 81st percentile. As long as Senga limits his walks, he’s typically an effective starter.
The Mets are 5-13 in the month of June and have had little to no production from some of their top players. In June, Jeff McNeil is batting .206, Francisco Lindor is batting .193, and Pete Alonso is batting just .143 with 5 RBI’s. Taijuan Walker only went 4.0 innings against the Mets back on June 1 after allowing 3 earned runs, but the bullpen stepped up and allowed just 1 more run for the remainder of the game. I think Walker puts together a much better outing tonight, as he’s given up just 1 earned run over his last 3 starts since facing the Mets. Each of these starters have pitched much better of late and 9.5 runs seems a little steep.
Kodai Senga over 6.5 strikeouts (+112)
Kodai Senga recorded 9 strikeouts in his last outing against the Phillies and I believe the right-hander has a decent chance to surpass his strikeout total of 6.5 tonight. It’s a number that Senga has surpassed in 7 of his 13 outings this season, and the Phillies have struck out an average of 9.53 per game in June. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos struck out a combined 9 times in their 2 games with Atlanta and they both have a tendency to swing out of the zone at times.
Senga has elite strikeout stuff with 28.3% of his batters going down via punchouts. The biggest concern with Senga has always been his control, but he seemed quite comfortable against the Phillies his last time out and it was the only game this season he didn’t walk a single batter. I’d expect the Phillies to be a little more patient, but they also have some guys in that lineup that are pressing. I’m going to back Senga to get over 6.5 strikeouts tonight.
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Tommy Pham to record 2+ total bases (+130)
As surprising as it may sound, Tommy Pham has been the Mets best player in June. On the year, Pham is batting .260 with 10 doubles, 7 homers, and 28 RBI’s, but is batting .321 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 14 RBI’s through 16 games in June. Pham leads all Mets’ players in average, slugging, extra-base hits, and RBI’s in the month of June, making him the perfect candidate for at least 2 total bases tonight.
Pham’s already accomplished this feat 10 times in the month and we’re getting this at generous +130 odds. Heading into tonight, Pham has hit safely in 13 of his last 16 games and has picked up 2 or more total bases in 10 of those games. Taijuan Walker has pitched much better of late, but he’s also been susceptible to extra-base hits. Walker’s hard-hit and xSLG percentiles are both below league average so this is matchup that certainly benefits someone like Pham.
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