Mark Lammey
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After a long 4-game series against a great Braves team, the Mets aren’t getting any time to rest. Not only are they in the midst of another tough series with a divisional opponent, they meet up with the Phillies twice today. With that in mind, be sure to monitor any last minute lineup or pitching changes. These teams even swapped the projected pitchers for the first game to this evening’s game instead. Now that things look to be set, let’s make this second game a profitable one.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Mets ML (-125)
Over 7.5 total runs (-170)
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (-115)
Parlay odds: +360
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
New York Mets ML (-125) over Philadelphia Phillies
With no Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer available, this is a perfect opportunity to get the Mets at a great price. There’s a lot at play given this is the second game of a doubleheader, but there’s plenty of reason to trust New York in this spot. Carlos Carrasco recently went on the injured list, which is part of the reason David Peterson is on the mound for this game. He’s been great filling out the rotation when needed, as he is now 6-2 on the year. His last time out was a scoreless start against an incredible Braves lineup.
He should provide the Mets with an advantage on the mound given the Phillies situation. After using ace Zack Wheeler in the first game of the day, Philly is giving Bailey Falter another start. He hasn’t even seen the mound this entire month, and is 0-3 on the year. He’s also faced the Mets already this season, and it didn’t go well. Falter gave up 5 runs in just 3.0 innings. That game certainly helped New York become the 4th-highest scoring team in the year. With the Mets out to bounce back from their midweek series against the Braves, expect them to finish out this doubleheader on top.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.5 total runs (-170)
Once again, no deGrom, Scherzer, or even Wheeler on the mound should have us seeing plenty of action in this second game. Both lineups also get a boost given the fact that this game is being played in Philly. Their home stadium of Citizens Bank Park is the best in the league for home runs, and there are plenty of power hitters in this matchup. Kyle Schwarber just returned to the lineup for the Phillies. Despite missing some time, he still has the most homers in the National League with 34, and the 2nd-most overall.
Opposite him is a back-to-back home run derby champion Pete Alonso. Not only did he homer last night, he’s now tied for the most RBI in baseball with 102. As if that wasn’t enough, his teammate Francisco Lindor has the 5th-most in the league. Along with the great month Rhys Hoskins has had, these starters should not be expected to pitch flawless games. Peterson led the Mets to a win his last time out, but there were still 13 runs scored. Similarly, Falter’s start against New York earlier in the year finished with 14 total runs. With great weather conditions, out-blowing winds, and fatigued bullpens in the second game of a doubleheader, there should be no shortage of runs tonight.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1399 odds!)
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (-115)
Just as there should be plenty of runs throughout the game, the offensive production should get started early. Of course the same applies in terms of the hitter-friendly conditions for this game. It also all starts right from the jump with the Mets at the top of the inning. Not only are they one of the league’s highest scoring teams, they lit up Falter for 3 runs in the 1st inning when they faced him earlier in the season. That success should continue given how great the top of their lineup is against lefties. Between Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Lindor, and Alonso, the worst slugging against such pitching is .413 percent.
Even if they don’t get it done off the jump, the Phillies have no issues producing in their home ballpark. That exponentially increases with the power of Kyle Schwarber adding to his NL-leading home run total. They too will be facing a lefty in Peterson. Philly has the 4th-highest OPS against them this season, with Hoskins hot streak boosting that number. He recently went on a streak of 4 straight games with a home run, with 3 of them in the 1st inning. With so many great matchups, expect a high-scoring game with a quick start.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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