Mark Lammey
Show Bio
The Mets and Braves are wrapping up their 4-game series as they continue their battle atop the NL East. New York’s win last night with Max Scherzer on the mound was needed, as Atlanta won the first 2 games. Tonight will have no shortage of aces either. Mets Jacob deGrom will be on the mound tonight, and Braves Max Fried is returning from his concussion. With just 4.5 games separating these teams, let’s make this series finale a profitable one.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
1st 5 innings / Money line – NY Mets / ATL Braves (+800)
Parlay Odds: +800
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
1st 5 innings / Money line – NY Mets / ATL Braves (+800)
To clarify, this is a joint prop listed as “NY Mets / ATL Braves” under the innings tab on DraftKings. It can also be created on FanDuel using the Mets 1st half result and Braves full game money line. Regardless, we’re going to break down each half of the play for the best analysis possible.
Jacob deGrom has been back for just 16 days, and is already going for his 3rd straight win. The first of those came against this same Braves team in their recent series. All the back-to-back Cy Young winner did was strikeout 12 Atlanta batters. The helped the Mets build a 5-0 lead by the end of the 5th inning. deGrom also gave up just a single hit to that deep Braves lineup. He followed up that start by striking out 10 Phillies, again helping the team have the lead after 5 innings. Despite the Mets producing just a single run, that was all deGrom needed.
The pushback would be the issue of pitch count. However, deGrom has been on a pitch count in every game so far, and each start has gone at least 5.0 innings. He was so efficient against the Phillies in his most recent outing that he went 6.0 innings. With deGrom needing just 1 run to maintain an early lead, that’s something the Mets can do even against Fried. While they may not score another 4 runs in the first 2 innings as they did last night, keep in mind Fried’s situation. He suffered a concussion, was scratched from his last night, went on the injured list and then wasn’t named tonight’s starter until early this morning.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
1st 5 innings / Money line – NY Mets / ATL Braves (+800) continued
Let’s transition into the next half of this joint play. First and foremost, the Mets offense has been oddly anemic to begin this series. After scoring just a single run off of rookie Spencer Strider in the opener, they were shutout by 38 year-old Charlie Morton. They were able to take advantage of a struggling Jake Odorizzi last night, but that much can’t be expected against Fried. Despite deGrom needing just a single run to be leading while he is on the mound, the Mets cannot rely on that for the overall win. That’s exactly what happened in deGrom’s first start of the season. He was his usual dominant self, allowing just 3 hits in his 5.0 innings. However, New York went on to lose to the Nationals 5-1 in that game.
Washington is the worst team in the entire league, whereas the Braves are the 5th-betting favorites to win the World Series. Atlanta has had the superior bullpen virtually all season, and have put that on display in this series. The Mets have failed to score beyond the first 5 innings in either of the first 2 games, while the Braves have put up 8 runs in a single inning against New York’s relievers. For some bonus content, the 5 runs the Mets scored to win deGrom’s last start was against Strider. He came out after the game and called them “lucky.” After giving up just a single run in the Braves 13-1 win to open this series, another win tonight would only further validate his comments.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1167 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.
