Mark Lammey
Show Bio
It may be NFL Sunday, but this is also the last ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game of the regular season. Other than Aaron Judge’s chase for the home run record (which we’ve broken down here), the NL East battle between the Mets and Braves has been the biggest storyline of the year. After Atlanta won the opener, the two we tied atop the division. With the Braves win last night, they now hold a 1.0 game lead of the NL East. There’s just 5 games left for these teams, so let’s break down the best way to play this finale. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Mets ML (+108)
Charlie Morton 5+ strikeouts (-295)
Pete Alonso 2+ total bases (+110)
Parlay odds: +433
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
New York Mets ML (+108) over Atlanta Braves
The Mets started this series with everything they had. They opened it up with future hall-of-famers Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on the mound for the first 2 games. They’ve both won back-to-back Cy Young awards and are a primary reason for the Mets having such a great outlook for the postseason. Although they didn’t get the Mets off to the best start to this division rivalry, there’s a reason they’re still favored to win the NL pennant over the Braves. Part of that is the depth of their starting rotation, which includes tonight’s starter Chris Bassitt.
He’s already secured a 15-win season with 1 of those coming against the Braves the last time he faced them. The Mets went on to win that game 7-3 after Bassitt allowed just 1 run in his 6.0 innings of work. Braves starter Charlie Morton was on the mound opposite him in that game, which was the 2nd time he lost to the Mets this season. The seasoned veteran allowed 5 of those runs himself, including 3 home runs. No matter what adversity New York has faced this season, they’ve always found a way to maintain the NL East lead. Now that they’ve got a taste of what 2nd place feels like, expect a big bounce-back night on national TV tonight.
Be sure to check out our New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves predictions
Charlie Morton 5+ strikeouts (-295)
This play may seem contradictory to the Mets winning the game, but that’s not the case. Braves starter Charlie Morton had 6 strikeouts in that aforementioned blowout loss, so both things can easily be true.
He’s particularly come on strong the second half of the season. He’s proven that age is just a number as the 38 year-old pitcher is among the league-leaders in strikeouts. His 200 are the 6th-most in the NL and the 11th-most overall. He’s able to rack up so many K’s as he’s a curveball pitcher, rather than the more common fastball-thrower. The incredible movement he has on that pitch has already proved to be a problem for the Mets.
Morton had his best game of the season strikeout-wise against New York in mid-August. He struck out 12 Mets and followed up that performance by striking out 11 Astros in his very next start. That’s 2 of the league’s best lineups and Morton hasn’t batted an eye. He also recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 3 of his 5 starts last month. Although he’s proven he can hit double-digit strikeouts against the Mets, we’re still going to use the alternate total to combine with our other plays.
Pete Alonso 2+ total bases (+110)
Admittedly, we targeted the Polar Bear last night and unfortunately he came up with just a single. However, Pete Alonso is simply too great of a hitter to not finish this series off strong and help his team close it out with a win. His 305 total bases are still the 4th-most in the NL and he’s 1 of just 3 hitters with at least 40 home runs. He still has the most RBI in baseball with 131, which is above even AL MVP-favorite Aaron Judge. Alonso may not be going for the home run record, but he can continue racking up the bases. He’s hitting .313 against Morton in 16 at-bats, so it’s no small sample size. The Braves starter may strike out a few other Mets hitters, but Alonso is unlikely to be one of them.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
