Mark Lammey
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For all of the close divisional and wild-card races that have gone on in this MLB season, none has been as captivating as the Mets and Braves. They’ve been within just a handful of games of each other for months and are currently tied. It’s only fitting that it all comes down to the final weekend of the regular season to determine a winner of the NL East. It can’t be decided just yet, but we have an incredible matchup on the mound for Saturday night. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Over 5.5 total runs (-180)
Mets ML (-126)
Pete Alonso 2+ total bases (+140)
Parlay odds: +383
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Over 5.5 total runs (-180)
The Mets are putting 3-time Cy Young-winner Max Scherzer on the mound, while the Braves are giving 20-win pitcher Kyle Wright the call. Scherzer has spent some time on the injured list this season, but has still continued to be as strong as ever. Wright continues to lead the league in wins, even over Braves lefty ace Max Fried. All of that is to say there is value on the over. While that may sound crazy, these big-name pitchers have not had their best performances against the opposition.
Such big names are also why this number is so low. That’s what brings the value, not that it should be a 15-run game. Firstly, Scherzer’s worst start of the season came against the Braves just 6 weeks ago. He gave up 4 runs to Atlanta in a game that ended with a 9-7 final score. Even his start prior against the Braves ended with 8 total runs. Similarly, Wright’s worst start was against the Mets the last time he faced them. He allowed 6 runs in what was ultimately a 10-run game. Both Scherzer and Wright have faced the likes of the A’s and Nationals in their recent starts. Those lineups are nothing compared to what they’ll see tonight. That may seem like a contrarian play, but such a low total provides value.
Be sure to check out our New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves predictions
New York Mets ML (-126) over Atlanta Braves
Expanding on each starter’s performances also led to what we predict should be a Mets victory. Both teams will be putting their best on the field as they battle for the NL East title, and that has favored New York thus far. Despite Scherzer not having his best performance against the Braves his last time against them, the Mets still won that game. In fact, they’ve won all 3 of Scherzer’s starts against Atlanta, with all 3 of them also being by multiple runs. Meanwhile, Wright has lost both of his starts against the Mets this season with both of them being by multiple runs.
One of the primary reasons the Braves have been unable to close things out against the Mets is Scherzer’s success against their biggest run producers. Atlanta’s Austin Riley is 1-for-8 against him and Matt Olson is just 1-for-9 against Scherzer. On the flip side, some of the Mets’ biggest bats have feasted on Wright. Jeff McNeil is an incredible .467 against him and the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso, is .364 against Wright. It may be the Braves starter with the better overall record, but Scherzer has been too dominant for too long to be the reason the Mets lose the NL East crown.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Pete Alonso 2+ total bases (+140)
Let’s expand on Alonso’s success against Wright for this final play. Not only is he hitting .364 against the Braves starter, he has an incredible .909 slugging percentage against him. He’s been dominating most pitchers this season overall as his 304 total bases are tied for the 3rd-most in the NL. His 40 home runs are the 3rd-most across both leagues, and he has 27 doubles to boot. Alonso is even above Aaron Judge with 131 RBI. Although he’s in the NL and can’t ruin Judge’s triple crown chase, it’s still an impressive stat. Alonso should be a key factor in the Mets retaking the NL East lead tonight.
Looking for another SGP? We’ve got you covered with a potential postseason matchup with the Rays vs. Astros
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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