Andrew Ortenberg
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The 2021 MLB season is approaching the home stretch, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We have a reduced slate on Monday, but there are still plenty of opportunities for value. One of the best games is this AL West showdown as the Seattle Mariners take on the Houston Astros. What better way to make this division rivalry game even more exciting than by betting a same game parlay?
Houston Astros -3.5 (+235)
Lance McCullers Jr over 7.5 strikeouts (+142)
Over 8.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1190
We have a 3-leg parlay which pays out just shy of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Houston Astros -3.5 (+235)
The Astros’ elite lineup makes them the kind of team that is always appealing on an alt run line. All season long, they’ve had arguably the best offense in the league. The Mariners might be 13 games above .500 now, but their -46 run differential tells you that they’re pretty lucky to have that record. Houston also has a big edge on the mound here with Lance McCullers Jr. going up against Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi actually pitched very well against the Astros in his most recent start, but outside of that he’s been pretty awful lately. In July he had a 6.11 ERA. In his previous start against the Astros before this most recent one, he got tagged for seven earned runs while lasting less than three innings.
Lance McCullers Jr over 7.5 strikeouts (+142)
I’m surprised we’re getting any plus-money here, and +142 has some serious standalone value. This McCullers prop also correlates heavily with the first leg of our same game parlay. If McCullers is racking up strikeouts, the Astros are probably winning big. McCullers has gotten to at least eight strikeouts in eight of his last 11 starts, so getting +142 feels like a steal. Seattle is 10th in the league in strikeouts over the past month. McCullers has faced the Mariners three times this season, and has gotten to eight strikeouts twice.
Over 8.5 (-110)
The over also makes a lot of sense here, and Houston will need to be scoring a lot to cover the -3.5. It wouldn’t surprise me if they come close to sending this one over by themselves. Like I mentioned, just a couple of weeks ago, the Astros got Kikuchi for seven runs just in the first few innings. Seattle’s offense has been pretty hot recently, and as long as we can just get a few runs from them here, I’ll be feeling pretty good about this total. Something like 8-3 in favor of Houston feels like one of the most likely outcomes here.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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